Syria’s Fragile Truce With the Kurds Is Falling Apart

The agreement between the interim government in Syria and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), signed just two months ago, is already on the brink of collapse. If it breaks down completely, northeastern Syria — home to key oil reserves and vital water infrastructure — could spiral back into conflict.

The deal, brokered largely with U.S. involvement, was seen as a breakthrough: a pathway toward unifying Syria under a central government and creating a national army. It also marked the first substantive cooperation between Damascus and the SDF, Washington’s chief partner in the fight against ISIS. The SDF, a Kurdish-led force that controls roughly 30 percent of Syria’s territory, played the lead role in dismantling the ISIS caliphate and continues joint counterterrorism operations with U.S. forces in the region.

In April, the SDF agreed to withdraw from the Kurdish-majority neighborhoods of Ashrafieh and Sheikh Maqsud in Aleppo, transferring security control to Damascus’s General Security Service. The two sides also conducted a limited prisoner exchange, signaling early steps toward implementation. But the deal is now unraveling — fast.

Kurds Push for Federal System

Syria’s Kurdish parties convened a major conference on April 26 to present a cohesive political vision for the country’s future. SDF commander Mazloum Abdi rejected accusations of separatism: “My message to all Syrian constituents and the Damascus government is that the conference does not aim, as some say, at division.” Instead, he called for building “a decentralized democratic Syria that embraces everyone,” anchored in a new constitution that guarantees political rights for all components of Syrian society. That message has only deepened the rift. Syria’s new constitution, unveiled by interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, centralizes authority in the presidency and was drafted without Kurdish participation. Ilham Ahmed, the co-president of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, the administrative body for the northeast of the country, said bluntly, “We want to participate in drafting the constitution and managing the country.”

Security Collapse at Tishrin Dam

Tensions are now flaring on the ground. Damascus issued a rebuke of the Kurdish unity conference, declaring: “We clearly reject any attempt to impose a partition or create separatist cantons under the terms of federalism.” Just one day later, on April 27, Syrian army units deployed near the Tishrin Dam — violating a localized agreement that left the dam under SDF control after Turkish-backed forces withdrew. Damascus also established new checkpoints in the area, likely in response to the Kurds’ political demands.

The seizure of the Tishrin Dam signals Damascus’s willingness to undermine the deal in pursuit of full control — and its disdain for Kurdish autonomy.

Equally troubling is the role of former Syrian National Army commanders now embedded within Syria’s new army. Men like Mohammad al-Jasem (Abu Amsha) and Sayf Boulad — both under U.S. sanctions for human rights abuses against Kurds — now hold senior command roles. Their involvement only heightens Kurdish fears of repression under the new regime.

U.S. Influence in Northeast Syria Remains Pivotal to Prevent Collapse

Despite a recent U.S. troop drawdown, Washington’s role in Syria remains vital. The SDF continues to lead front-line operations against a resurging Islamic State, backed by remaining U.S. special forces. Late last year, the Pentagon temporarily ramped up its footprint in Syria in response to increased ISIS activity. The justification for this year’s reduction was that the surge had contained the threat — but the long-term risk remains.

If the March agreement collapses, not only would Damascus and the Kurds return to open hostility, but U.S. gains against ISIS could unravel. Thousands of Islamic State fighters are still held in SDF-run prisons and camps, and any chaos could trigger mass escapes and a resurgence of violence.

Washington must remain engaged in preventing the collapse of the March agreement. Preserving this fragile deal is the best hope of avoiding renewed war. Moreover, Washington should treat Kurdish political inclusion as a litmus test for any future recognition of Syria’s interim government. No inclusivity, no recognition.

Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as U.S. foreign policy toward the region. For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.