Turkey’s Rising Influence in Post-Assad Syria

“You’ve taken it over through surrogates,” Donald Trump says he told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, acknowledging Turkey’s deepening role in Syria. Syria’s interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, has already made one official state visit to Turkey and is planning a second visit in mid-April. Ankara also retains control of the Syrian National Army (SNA), a proxy force it built during the country’s civil war. Aligned with Sharaa, the SNA is in the process of integrating itself into Syria’s armed forces.

Turkey’s growing footprint in Syria is a point of concern for Israel, fueled by Ankara’s open backing of Hamas over the past 18 months since the October 7 massacre. A military presence in Syria could enable Ankara to use its proxies, or even its own forces, to threaten Israel.

Turkey’s Dual Strategy: Military Entrenchment and Infrastructure Revival

Ahead of Sharaa’s first meeting with Erdogan, reports surfaced that discussions would focus on a “joint defense pact including establishing Turkish air bases in central Syria.” Reportedly, Turkish forces have eyed deployments at the T4 airbase in Homs, aiming to install advanced air defense systems to counter Israeli operations and to respond to Islamic State threats. Separately, a Turkish defense official signaled that his country is exploring the establishment of a military base in Syria for training purposes. These moves are part of a broader strategy to safeguard Ankara’s interests, facilitate the return of Syrian refugees, prevent any Kurdish military presence along Turkey’s border, and curb the sway of regional actors like Israel, Iran, and Russia.

Complementing its military ambitions, Turkey is also positioning itself as a key player in Syria’s reconstruction. As Turkish Minister of Transport Adil Karaismailoglu noted, “Syria needs everything.” With over a decade of war leaving critical infrastructure in ruins, Turkey is planning to rehabilitate Syria’s roads and bridges through investments channeled by its development agencies. These initiatives may help revitalize Syria’s battered economy but also entrench Turkey’s influence, weaving its presence into the fabric of Syria’s recovery.

Turkish Proxies Appointed to High-Level Positions in Syria’s New Military

Sharaa has installed two top SNA figures in key positions in the newly restructured Syrian army. One is Mohammad al-Jasem, leader of the SNA’s Sultan Suleiman Shah Brigade, whom Sharaa appointed commander of the Hama Division. The other is Sayf Abu Bakr, leader of the SNA’s Hamzat Division and now commander of Syria’s 76th division. Washington sanctioned both men for human rights abuses against Kurds. Both divisions allegedly took part in the sectarian massacres in Syria’s coastal provinces in March 2025. Reports in March indicated that a Turkish military delegation will visit Syria and appoint a Turkish officer as an advisor to the Syrian military. This alliance between Sharaa and Turkey is a marriage of convenience: Sharaa gains protection, while Turkey secures its strategic interests by placing proxies in powerful positions.

Washington Should Strongly Discourage Turkish Military Activity in Syria

In March, Israeli media reports indicated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held security consultations to address Turkey’s growing influence in Syria. At Netanyahu’s White House meeting on April 7, Trump told him, “If you have a problem with Turkey, I really think I’m going to be able to work it out.” Trump should make clear to Erdogan that Turkey’s support for Hamas and other extremists is the root of the problem. Likewise, Trump should make clear that Turkey should not deploy forces or have control over bases in southern Syria. Additionally, Turkey should halt any efforts to reignite conflict with the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. A return to conflict will only lead to more devastation in Syria.

Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as U.S. foreign policy toward the region. For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.