In Sign of Deepening Ties, China Signs Agreements With Cook Islands

China has increased its presence in Oceania, undermining regional confidence in the United States and threatening sea lines critical for Australia’s and New Zealand’s security. On February 22, China and the Cook Islands, a self-governing state in free association with New Zealand, announced they had finalized a series of agreements on deep-sea mineral exploration, maritime economic cooperation, and joint development projects.

Coupled with other recent Chinese diplomatic and military maneuvers in the region, the agreements mark Beijing’s latest effort to extend its influence over the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) and project power beyond the so-called “first island chain” — which encompasses Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan — and into the broader Pacific region.

Agreement Improves China’s Position Amongst Pacific Island Countries

The signed agreements include provisions for cooperation on seabed mineral mining, Belt and Road Initiative projects, maritime transport, and fisheries management, all of which have been key sources of Chinese economic activity within the region. Under the terms of the deals, China will be allowed to cooperate with local authorities on mineral exploration, logistical support, and deep-sea research, though Beijing notably did not gain an exclusive concession on mining rights. The agreements also cement closer political ties between the Cook Islands and China, directing Avarua to support Beijing in international fora, cooperate on transnational security issues, and submit to bilateral meetings ahead of regional political conferences.

These agreements are the latest diplomatic victory for Beijing in its longstanding drive to accrue influence in the PICs, including through economic cooperation, elite capture, and policing assistance. Beijing has steadily increased its regional engagement over the past decade, having signed a range of security and development agreements with the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Kiribati, Samoa, and others. Along with politically undermining Taiwan, long seen by the PICs as a key regional partner, these agreements may provide the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) access to staging areas far closer to Hawaii and other sensitive U.S. military locations.

China Expands Military Presence in Oceania

The signing ceremony preceded two unannounced Chinese live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand on February 22 and 23. In these drills, a three-ship flotilla — comprising an oiler, a Jiangkai-class frigate, and the Renhai-class Zunyi, the PLA Navy’s most capable cruiser — launched missiles just outside Australia’s exclusive economic zone, forcing commercial flights to reroute. These exercises constitute an unprecedented show of force, demonstrating Beijing’s increased willingness and capacity to project power beyond its maritime periphery.

China likely sought to normalize its military presence in the region, intimidate Canberra and Wellington, and test their responses to ever-greater provocations. The parallel between the live fire drills and the Cook Islands agreement signals Beijing’s intent to replace Canberra and Wellington as the PICs’ primary benefactor while sidelining Washington. These drills add to China’s growing presence east of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, compounding doubts about the U.S. ability to defend Australia, New Zealand, and the PICs.

U.S. Should Deepen Engagement in the Region to Counter China 

China’s growing influence over the PICs directly threatens U.S. military and commercial access to the region, undermining Washington’s ability to secure its interests and placing its forces at greater risk.

In response, Washington should work in conjunction with its fellow “Quad” states — India, Australia, and Japan — along with New Zealand, Taiwan, and the Philippines to pool resources and coordinate approaches toward minimizing Beijing’s regional influence. The partners should organize foreign aid initiatives focused on civil society, democratic governance, environmental sustainability, and media freedom. The United States should also facilitate private-sector engagement in the PICs through the Development Finance Corporation and the Export-Import Bank. These mechanisms should aim to assist local communities in insulating themselves from unsolicited Chinese overtures while contributing to the maintenance of a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Jack Burnham is a research analyst in the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Reece Breaux is an intern. For more analysis from Jack, Reece, and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Jack on X @JackBurnham802. Follow Reece on X @reece_breaux. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.