Kremlin Retains Maximalist Goals in Ukraine, U.S. Pressure Needed

Washington took an initial step toward thawing relations with Moscow on Tuesday as U.S. and Russian officials met in Riyadh for talks on Ukraine. A peace deal remains far off, however. The Kremlin continues to insist on maximalist demands and likely feels it is now closer to reaching them.

Four-Point Agreement

Secretary of State Marco Rubio led the U.S. delegation in Riyadh alongside National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who has assumed a prominent role on Russia policy. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yury Ushakov, who both have decades of experience in dealing with Washington, represented Russia. Kirill Dmitriev, the U.S.-educated CEO of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, joined for part of the meeting to discuss economic issues. Dmitriev, who has ties to the Putin family, previously served as an informal emissary to President Trump’s first administration and helped facilitate the recent U.S.-Russia prisoner swap.

A State Department readout listed four next steps for what Rubio described as a “multitrack” process concerning both U.S.-Russia relations and Ukraine. First, the two sides agreed to create a “consultation mechanism” to work on unwinding the tit-for-tat restrictions imposed on their respective diplomatic missions since 2017. Second, they will task “high-level teams” to start talks on a Ukraine settlement.

Meanwhile, Washington and Moscow will begin laying the “groundwork” for post-war geopolitical and economic cooperation, which Rubio said will be contingent on an “acceptable” peace agreement. Finally, the officials agreed to “remain engaged to make sure the process moves forward in a timely and productive manner.” Ushakov said they discussed a potential leader-level summit but have not set a date.

Nothing About Ukraine Without Ukraine

Notably absent: Ukrainian and European officials. Kyiv was not invited and reportedly learned of the planned talks through the media. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Ukraine envoy, recently said the administration does not foresee European officials being physically present at negotiations. This comes after the administration did not coordinate with Kyiv and Europe prior to last week’s Trump-Putin call, unilaterally conceded to key Russian demands (before walking that statement back), and warned allies to prepare for a diminishing U.S. role in European and Ukrainian security.

Moscow, of course, would prefer to deal directly with Washington over the heads of Ukraine and Europe. But this would be counterproductive. It would upend alliance unity, and a successful deal will require Ukrainian and European support. Going forward, Washington should be guided by — and explicitly commit to — the principles “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine” and “nothing about Europe without Europe.” Nor should Trump rush into a summit with Putin or push Ukraine to hold premature elections, which would play into Russia’s hands.

Setting Conditions for a Good Deal

Moscow continues to present maximalist demands for ending the war, including limits on the size of Ukraine’s military, and says it will not accept a European-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine. While the Trump administration may hope for a speedy ceasefire, Russia continues to press its battlefield advantage in pursuit of greater leverage.

To encourage compromise, Washington should tighten sanctions on Russia’s oil revenue, which could shorten the amount of time Russia’s struggling economy can sustain the war. In addition, Washington should continue helping Ukraine’s military exhaust Russia’s offensive potential. Last week, Trump rightly vowed to maintain aid for as long as necessary. He and other U.S. officials should repeat this pledge — and follow through. If Trump insists on tying aid to a deal concerning Ukraine’s natural resources, that agreement should be mutually beneficial.

Meanwhile, Washington needs to lay the groundwork to help deter a follow-on war. Even without U.S. combat troops in Ukraine, a European peacekeeping force will likely require U.S. support. Allies need clarity on what U.S. contribution they can expect. Likewise, Ukraine will require continued military assistance after the war — a task Europe cannot handle alone, though there are ways to reduce the burden on American taxpayers.

John Hardie is the deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power. For more analysis from John and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow John on X @JohnH105. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.