Trump’s Return Pushes Iran Into a Defensive Posture

Increasingly fearful of their loosening grip on power, the Islamic Republic’s rulers are recalibrating their foreign policy, at least temporarily, to gauge the impact of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Tehran is reining in regional proxies from Gaza to Yemen and suggesting its readiness for talks with the United States over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions as it faces the prospect of a renewed campaign of “maximum pressure.”

Khamenei Warns of U.S. Deception

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has floated the possibility of talks with Washington by warning that Iran must approach any negotiations with appropriate caution. “Behind the smiles of diplomacy, there are always hidden and malicious enmities and resentments,” Khamenei said on January 28. This is an apt characterization of Tehran’s approach to negotiating with the Biden administration, which mainly served to divert attention from Iran’s accelerating nuclear program.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi similarly did not rule out renewed talks. He also emphasized that Tehran’s disappointment that the nuclear deal negotiated with the United States and four other powers in 2015 was now effectively moot, with robust new sanctions introduced in the interim. Yet the enforcement of those sanctions was lackluster during Biden’s term, enabling Iran to mount a substantial economic recovery.  

Baghdad Calls for Integrating Shiite Militias Into Iraqi Armed Forces

Araghchi conceded that Iran’s regional proxies had been dealt “several serious blows” by their participation in the multi-front war against Israel triggered by the Hamas atrocities of October 7, 2023. Anticipating Washington’s stringent stance against Iran’s proxies, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein asserted on January 16 that Iraq’s national government aims to pressure Iran-backed militias to disarm and integrate into the country’s armed forces.

The Iran-backed al Nujaba militia in Iraq — designated a terrorist group by the United States — announced in December 2024 a halt to attacks on Israel ahead of Trump’s return to office. And in a clear indication that Iran’s rulers are still smarting from the January 2020 elimination of Qassem Soleimani, Esmail Ghaani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force (IRGC-QF) and Soleimani’s successor, met with Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq on January 5 to discuss “restructuring and disengaging armed factions.”

Yemeni Houthis Redesignated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization

Trump redesignated the Houthi rebels in Yemen as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) on January 22. Biden lifted the group’s previous designation when he first took office, reversing Trump’s initial decision. Yet the Houthi’s campaign of aggression in the Red Sea led the Biden administration to classify them as specially designated global terrorists in January 2024. The return to FTO status will strengthen sanctions on the Houthis and enhance penalties for those who aid them. Iran condemned Trump’s announcement, an unsurprising response considering the crucial role that Iranian support has played in enhancing the Houthis’ military capabilities, including attacks on the U.S. Navy, ballistic missile strikes on Israel, and assaults on shipping vessels in the Red Sea.

Nuclear Brinkmanship: Tehran’s Gravest Threat

Despite the impact of Israel’s military campaign on Iran’s proxies and military facilities inside Iran, the regime retains a crucial source of leverage: its nuclear program. Tehran possesses an enriched uranium stockpile and centrifuge capabilities that could swiftly yield weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb.

The Islamic Republic has publicly escalated its nuclear threat in a bid to obtain sanctions relief. Kamal Kharrazi, an advisor to Khamenei, threatened in November 2024 to “reconsider” the regime’s nuclear doctrine and added that Iran possesses the capabilities to manufacture a nuclear weapon.

Reinstating Maximum Pressure While Supporting the Iranian People

Despite Tehran seemingly signaling a willingness to engage in negotiations, it has made sanctions relief a prerequisite for talks. Yet Tehran pocketed concessions granted by the previous administration without reciprocating. This only emboldened Tehran, fueling its regional aggression and advancing its nuclear ambitions. Today, the regime’s growing fragility presents a critical opportunity to reinstate a maximum pressure strategy — this time paired with support for the Iranian people’s pursuit of a democratic and secular government.

 Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s malign regional influence. For more analysis from Janatan and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Janatan on X @JanatanSayeh. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, non-partisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.