January 16, 2025 | Policy Brief

Alawite Fears Ignite Syria’s Coastal Chaos

January 16, 2025 | Policy Brief

Alawite Fears Ignite Syria’s Coastal Chaos

Violence is spreading in Syria’s Mediterranean coastal region, home to the country’s largest concentration of Alawites, the religious minority whose members include the ousted dictator Bashar al-Assad. With the government now in the hands of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Sunni Islamist movement that toppled Assad, the Alawites fear retribution for their privileged status during 50 years of Assad family rule.

Protests against HTS have erupted in cities like Qardaha, Latakia, and Tartus. Clashes intensified on December 25, when armed groups loyal to Assad launched coordinated attacks on HTS checkpoints and ambushed police forces in Tartus, killing 14. This violence followed the circulation of videos showing the desecration of an Alawite religious site in Homs.

In a recent escalation, Bassam Hussam al-Din, a former National Defense Forces commander under Assad, led an attack on an HTS barracks, killing two and kidnapping seven. He later released a video demanding the withdrawal of HTS from the Syrian coast and calling for Alawite autonomy, before detonating a suicide bomb during an HTS rescue operation at the barracks.

Alawites Fear Retribution for Their Dominant Role in the Assad Regime

Once impoverished and marginalized, the Alawite community became deeply entrenched in the regime’s power structure under the Assad regime, with over 80 percent employed in the public sector, where they dominated the upper ranks of the military and intelligence services. Alawite militias, later institutionalized as the Iranian and Hezbollah-backed National Defense Forces, were central to the regime’s brutal crackdown during the civil war.

For over a decade, Assad framed his regime as the protector of Alawites, fostering a dependency rooted in fear. Now, this narrative has left the community deeply anxious about the country’s new leadership, drawn from Syria’s Sunni Arab majority. Elites tied to Assad’s crony network fear the loss of their wealth and influence, while those implicated in the regime’s atrocities dread retribution — whether through prosecution by the new government or rough justice at the hands of the mob.

Iran’s Reported Involvement in Provoking Alawite Unrest

Erem News, an Emirati outlet, has accused Iran of exploiting the post-Assad political and security vacuum in Syria to incite unrest and reshape the coastal region to align with its interests. According to Erem, Iran has been funding armed groups and local factions loyal to Tehran in a bid to destabilize the area and secure Iranian influence. Items bearing the insignia of the Iran-backed Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces were found near the site of clashes between HTS forces and Assad loyalists.

Statements from senior Iranian officials underscore this agenda. Just hours before the December 25 protests, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hinted at future instability, urging deliberation in judgment in a message addressed to the new leadership in Syria. Similarly, Mohsen Rezaee, a member of the Expediency Discernment Council, talked about plans to “revive the resistance” and counter “the malicious plans of America, the Zionist entity, and other countries in the region.”

Iran May Be Seeking a New Route for Arms Shipments to Hezbollah

The United States and Israel face significant risks from Iran’s renewed push for influence in Syria, particularly in the coastal region. Exploiting the Alawite community’s anxieties and Syria’s broader instability, Iran aims to solidify its foothold near Lebanon’s northern border, which adjoins the Alawite heartland on the coast. This proximity heightens the danger of Iran establishing a new route for arms shipments to Hezbollah since HTS now controls the Assad-era routes across Lebanon’s eastern border. Additionally, any major escalation along the Syrian coast could plunge the country into renewed violence, inviting further Iranian intervention.

Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as U.S. foreign policy toward the region. For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Issues:

Issues:

Hezbollah Iran Iran Global Threat Network Syria

Topics:

Topics:

Iran Israel Syria Middle East Iraq Tehran Hezbollah Lebanon Washington Arabs Bashar al-Assad Sunni Islam United Arab Emirates Alawites Tahrir al-Sham Homs Mediterranean Sea Popular Mobilization Forces Seyed Abbas Araghchi Tartus Expediency Discernment Council Mohsen Rezaee Latakia Governorate