Lebanon Ceasefire Talks: Beware of Trusting Russia to Restrain Hezbollah

Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Saar, on Monday questioned the enforceability of a ceasefire with Hezbollah but suggested that Russia might help by blocking smuggled arms from Syria. Yet trusting Moscow would be risky. Russia has a longstanding alliance with the Syrian regime and an increasingly close relationship with Iran, and Moscow has shown little desire to rein in Hezbollah.

Israel is seeking Russian support for a ceasefire through discreet diplomacy, including a secret visit to Russia by cabinet member Ron Dermer. Days later, Dermer met with President-elect Donald Trump as well as the Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Yet Saar’s expression of confidence in Russia may be more of a diplomatic gesture than a true signal of Israeli thinking.

Russia teamed up with Iran and Hezbollah to prop up the Assad regime

In Syria, Russia has spent nearly a decade working closely with Iran and Hezbollah to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Accordingly, Moscow is unlikely to compromise Iran’s strategic interests, particularly the flow of weaponry from Iran through Syria into Hezbollah’s hands, especially since Iran supplies Russia with weaponry for its war in Ukraine. For over a decade, the Syrian-Lebanese border has been largely controlled by Hezbollah and other Iranian-led proxies, so any prospective Russian presence would likely necessitate a separate agreement with Iran and Hezbollah. In addition to facilitating illicit arms trafficking, control of the border is also vital to trafficking drugs, especially Captagon.

Russian flagrantly violated a 2017 agreement with Jordan and the U.S. to restrain Hezbollah in Syria

In 2017, Trump reached an agreement with Russia and Jordan to stabilize southern Syria, pledging to maintain a ceasefire between the Assad regime and anti-Assad rebel factions. However, Russia did little to hold back Assad and his allies, so the agreement created an opening for Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, to expand their influence and military infrastructure in the area, ultimately forcing out the rebels. Hezbollah also moved closer to the Israeli-held Golan Heights as well as the Syrian-Jordanian border, which facilitated the smuggling of arms and narcotics into Jordan.

IDF needs to be able to enforce any ceasefire

Since the initiation of Operation Northern Arrows in September, the Syrian-Lebanese border has been a frequent target for Israeli airstrikes. However, air operations alone are unlikely to dismantle Hezbollah’s arms smuggling network. Once a ceasefire is in place, someone will have to monitor and enforce it. The Lebanese Armed Forces are not an option, since they have shown they are incapable of acting against Hezbollah. Nor are UN peacekeepers, who failed to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding and rearming after the previous war with Israel. Thus, an Israeli right to enforce the ceasefire militarily remains the most viable option.

U.S. should only support an enforceable agreement

The United States has previously signaled its support for Israel’s right to intervene in Lebanon should any potential ceasefire be breached, including if Hezbollah maintains a presence south of the Litani or continues smuggling arms through Lebanon’s air and seaports or from Syria. Washington should stand firmly by that position, since neither Russia nor any other actor has demonstrated both the will and the ability to restrain Hezbollah.

Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs as well as U.S. foreign policy toward the region. For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.