Can Iran Strike Back Effectively?

Excerpt

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will seek revenge. The attacks in Qatar and Iraq are a reminder to the Americans that the regime still has resolve. It can still strike back, hoping to rehabilitate its battered red-lines. Mr. Khamenei seeks again to blend caution with aggression. Striking back strong enough to impress his sullen constituents and impetuous Americans, but not hard enough to provoke a massive U.S. retaliation. It is a tricky balance and a discombobulated Khamenei, who has become more aggressive with age, may not get it right.

History offers some guideposts. In 1988, as war with Iraq dragged on, Tehran tried to pressure the world by targeting oil tankers. The Persian Gulf was then, as it is today, the principal artery for transmitting oil to the world. Ronald Reagan launched an operation that destroyed much of Iran’s navy. A defining tragedy also interceded: The USS Vincennes accidentally shot down an Iranian passenger plane, killing 290 people. In Tehran’s corridors of power, paranoia played to America’s advantage. The Iranian ruling elite thought America had entered the war. Suddenly, Iran stopped molesting maritime commercial traffic. But theocracy never sued for peace.

Editor’s note: This article has been updated to account for Monday’s Iranian strikes in Qatar and Iraq.

Mr. Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA, is a resident scholar at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council for Foreign Relations.