The Potential Challenges of Deterring a Nuclear Iran

Excerpt

Unpacking the importance of deterrence to Iranian security policy can help the United States and others to devise strategies aimed at having a deterrent effect on Tehran. Deterrence is an obsession for the Islamic Republic’s national security elite, one which stems from their experience during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, a conflict which constitutes the regime’s “never again” moment and continues to have implications for its security policy today.

Iranian officials and media outlets have not been shy about stressing the imperative of deterrence. According to Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force (IRGC-AF) and the man overseeing the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, deterrence is viewed as a continuous action, akin to the physics of riding a bicycle. “While riding a bicycle, if we do not pedal, we will capsize. Our movement towards strengthening our deterrent power must be continuous because the malice of the enemy continues,” Hajizadeh said.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is the senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington, D.C., where he also serves as a senior fellow specializing in Iranian and Middle Eastern security and political issues.