Donald Trump Must Hold Turkey Accountable for Its Actions

Turkey’s authoritarian leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan was premature in his optimism at the re-election of Donald Trump. Erdogan is convinced that his existing relationship with Trump, will allow him to realize many goals, long denied to him by the Biden administration, and what would have been the Harris White House. The Trump transition team should not be bowled over by the empty platitudes of the snake oil salesman that is Erdogan. For years, Erdogan has upset, undermined and damaged core American security interests and those of its partners and allies. The incoming foreign policy and national security staff for the 47^th President of the United States must know that Washington holds a strong hand to compel Ankara to back down from incessant damaging policies. Moreover, to the extent that Trump bends Erdogan to his will, Washington will be in a better position to achieve its wider goals in the Middle East.

Biden’s Turkey Mistake

The Biden administration chose to ignore and overlook Erdogan’s brazen acts to empower the Hamas terrorist network. From weapons and explosive material shipments, to fundraising and recruitment efforts, Hamas has accomplished much with its operating bases in Turkey, granted to him by Erdogan.

As recently as August this year, Turkey facilitated another conference in Istanbul, where Hamas senior leader Khaled Meshaal openly called upon Palestinians to carry out suicide bombings inside Israel. Between 2023-2024, Israeli officials seized several shipments of material originating from Turkey bound for Gaza, where they would have been used by Hamas operators to make explosives. Numerous Turkish entities as well as Hamas operatives in Turkey have been sanctioned by the US Treasury for their continues role in aiding and abetting terrorism, which in some cases, benefited Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Biden White House took no measures to coerce Turkey to stop any of these actions.

Now, less than two months prior to Biden’s departure, new reporting indicates that Turkey may be interested in formally hosting Hamas’ headquarters, after the terrorist group was asked to leave Qatar, their main base since 2012. While this elicited a verbal rebuke by the State Department spokesman, Matthew Miller on November 19, no serious action seems to be readied by the outgoing administration as to what the US would be willing to do, if NATO’s second largest military and a treaty ally of the United States, formally established a terrorist organization’s headquarters on their soil.

What Team Trump Should Do on Turkey

Upon assuming office, the Trump administration must take advantage of its position to compel Ankara to unconditionally cease and desist all efforts to aid Hamas. In addition to dismantling its in-country infrastructure, Turkey must extradite all Hamas operatives to Israel. If Erdogan refuses to do this, Washington can and should respond by expanding the number of sanctions it already imposed upon Ankara in 2019, under the Countering of Americas Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

One could speculate that in return for Turkey’s co-operation over Hamas, Erdogan may want something in return. It would most likely focus on three things: Asking the US to terminate its support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria and ending the American assistance mission to the Syrian Kurds, who have fought against and continue to contain what is left of the Islamic State, whom Erdogan considers to be a “terrorist” entity. Erdogan may also want the lifting of CAATSA sanctions, that would allow him to purchase F-35 fighter jets, in addition exempting Turkey from any and all US trade tariffs.

It is critical to note that Trump does not have to compromise making demands from Erdogan and can pursue a maximalist strategy. In other words: demand termination of Turkey’s support for Hamas; no end to US assistance mission to the SDF and no lifting of CAATSA sanctions.

Could such a maximalist strategy work? The answer is yes, because Erdogan has nothing up his sleeve that could undermine the US’ maximalist posture. Moreover, the broadening of US sanctions and trade tariffs on Turkey would have more damaging consequences for Turkey’s economy than in 2019. Turkey is far more fragile economically. In other words, in the case of Turkey, Washington can have its cake and eat it. Erdogan has spent years conducting military strikes against the SDF, destabilizing northern Syria and potentially providing the remnants of ISIS to once again regroup threaten regional security once again. The Trump administration has no reason to abandon the SDF, and certainly not because Erdogan demands it.

The list of asks that Trump can make, could end with this, but there is one more item that could be added to his shopping list: demand Turkey divest of its S-400 missiles, which it acquired from Russia, which was the initial reason why Trump sanctioned Turkey in 2019. On the one hand, Trump may renew calls for NATO countries to increase their defense spending from two to three per cent. If the new administration is interested in bolstering NATO’s defensive capabilities by asking members to increase their spending, would it not make sense to ask the one member to relinquish its holding of weapons systems that could fundamentally undermine alliance cohesivity and interoperability?

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and its illegal occupation of Ukrainian territory, Erdogan has done the bare minimum to support the international efforts to defeat Vladimir Putin. By maintaining an air defense system he acquired from Russia, Erdogan makes a mockery of the transatlantic security alliance on a daily basis, and there is no basis for continuing to tolerate Ankara’s intransigence.

Marco Rubio has been nominated to be Trump’s new Secretary of State. Rubio is a sharp critic of Erdogan and has consistently called out Turkey on all the points discussed here. As a US Senator, he was the architect of the East Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership Pact between the US, Greece and Cyprus. This has increased levels of military, intergovernmental and military cooperation vital to the security of the Eastern Mediterranean. Rubio has also been sharply critical of Ankara’s human rights record, budding relationships with other authoritarian leaders such as Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, and threatening Turkish behavior against US forces and partners in northern Syria.

Pro-Erdogan pundits in Turkey are keenly aware that if Rubio and other key actors confirmed into national security roles as desired by Trump, Turkey is in trouble. The Trump administration should see this as a key moment to compel Turkey to back away from the entire suite of policies that has long vexed Washington. In the event that it succeeds, Trump’s ability to provide security to Israel, prevent the Islamic State from resurging in Syria and stop Putin’s efforts to weaken NATO, can all be revitalized.

There is no reason for Trump to compromise with Erdogan. The beleaguered leader of Turkey has a weak hand, and he knows it. It’s time to hold Erdogan accountable.

Sinan Ciddi is a non-resident senior fellow at FDD and an expert on Turkish politics. He is also an Associate Professor of National Security Studies at Marine Corps University (MCU). Prior to joining MCU, Sinan was the Executive Director of the Institute of Turkish Studies, based at Georgetown University (2011-2020). He continues to serve as an Adjunct Associate Professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Sinan is the author of Kemalism in Turkish Politics: The Republican People’s Party: Secularism and Nationalism (Routledge, January 2009) a book which explains the electoral weakness of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party. He obtained his Ph.D. from the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London in 2007 in the field of Political Science.