November 18, 2024 | National Security Journal

Turkey Shouldn’t Celebrate a Donald Trump Victory Just Yet

November 18, 2024 | National Security Journal

Turkey Shouldn’t Celebrate a Donald Trump Victory Just Yet

The Trump Administration Should Make Strong Demands of Turkey: Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan feels he has reason to be optimistic about the outcome of the U.S. elections.

Like many, Erdogan was bracing for the election of Kamala Harris, which in his estimation would have been a continuity a U.S. policy of keeping Turkey at arm’s length. Throughout the Biden years, Turkish-American ties were conducted largely at the foreign ministerial level. As far as Erdogan is concerned, the return of Donald Trump to the White House, means a renewed opportunity to gloss over a myriad of problems and grievances that beleaguer the two NATO allies’ bilateral relationship. This could certainly be true. Erdogan and Trump may stand a greater chance of hammering out deals as Trump likes to say, but Washington must recognize that it would be negotiating from a significant position of strength. If there is to be any meaningful engagement with Turkey, Washington should be explicit and clear in its expectations.

Turkey and Trump: A New Path Forward? Not Exactly

Erdogan may have to temper positive expectations of dealing with the incoming Trump administration.

It was Trump in 2019, who imposed sanctions on Turkey and kicked it out of the F-35 fighter jet program, for Ankara’s stubborn insistence on purchasing the Russian S-400 missiles. This cost Turkey the ability to acquire a vital fifth generation strategic weapons capability.

Since 2019, Turkey has been too afraid to activate and deploy the S-400 missiles, fearing further U.S. sanctions. It is also terrified of divesting of them, worried about facing punitive measures that could be imposed by Vladimir Putin. Ankara has also struggled to acquire new fighter jets to offset the loss of the F-35.

In effect, Erdogan cornered his country into an avoidable position of not having a modernized air force, in addition to lacking an active air defense system. Despite such woes, Erdogan has done nothing to reverse course and address U.S. concerns over the S-400’s.

Under the first Trump term, Ankara, like many other countries, was slapped with tariffs on its steel and textile exports. If Trump’s 2024 electoral promises come to life, Turkey will face continued and possibly new tariffs on its exports, however this time around, the Turkish economy is in a far weaker position. Ravaged by ruinous unorthodox economic policies deployed by Erdogan, Turkey’s economy has been crippled by hyperinflation and falling personal incomes. Mehmet Simsek, the Minister of Finance has been seeking foreign investment flows into the country since he took office in late 2023. The prospect of tariffs in second Trump terms is likely to mean lower exports for Turkey, further depressing its chances of economic recovery.

The Hamas Question

The issue, however, that stands the highest chance of driving Ankara and Washington to the brink of acrimony is likely to be Erdogan’s continuing patronage of Hamas.

Trump’s foreign policy team is likely to be made up of staunch pro-Israel actors. The nomination of Elise Stefanik—a strong advocate for Israel– for the position of UN Ambassador is an indication of this. The same could be said for the potential nomination of Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, Peter Hegseth for Secretary of Defense, and Mike Huckabee as U.S. ambassador to Israel. All these men strongly advocate for close American Israeli ties. In the case of Rubio, he has been publicly critical of much of Erdogan’s policy positions, whom he believes are detrimental to and undermining of U.S. security interests. The proposed composition of Trump’s national security and foreign policy staff, as it stands now, could cause Erdogan significant headaches for Erdogan.

And rightly so. Erdogan’s championing of Hamas is entrenched. Turkey is the only country inside the NATO alliance, and certainly the only U.S. ally that openly embraces Hamas as group of “resistance fighters”. While many American allies have been openly critical of Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon, none have embraced Hamas in quite the same way as Erdogan. The organization exists formally in Turkey, is allowed to recruit, fundraise and engage in formal dialogue with the government of Turkey. Erdogan has publicly taken meetings with senior leaders including Ismail Haniyeh, Khaled Meshaal and Yahya Sinwar, and he has vowed continuing support for the organization. Erdogan has compared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of outdoing Hitler and accused Israel of carrying out genocide against Palestinians.

More Problems

Hamas is not the only major issue that divides Washington and Ankara. Turkey’s continuous efforts to military target and attack the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are U.S. partners in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS), is a toxic portfolio. While Erdogan, perceives the SDF as an extension of the separatist Kurdish movement in Turkey, whom he sees as terrorists, for Washington and Europe, the SDF is an indispensable partner in the fight to prevent a resurgence of ISIS in the Middle East. On many occasions Turkish targeting of SDF forces has come perilously close to hitting American military personnel. Most significantly however, Erdogan’s overall position in the attempted undermining of SDF-American partnership jeopardizes regional security and vital American security interests. Washington’s priority has been to negate the potential of an ISIS resurgence. Erdogan’s military operations against the SDF endanger that goal.

None of this should be tolerated, normalized or accepted by Trump’s proposed national security team. The incoming Trump administration should be aware that Ankara has particular interests from Washington, in particular, to be readmitted into the F-35 program, and desire to avoid further tariffs and have sanctions lifted. There are items which could be negotiated, if, and only if Turkey meets specific demands. Turkey must unconditionally divest of its S-400’s—ideally by donating some portion of its stockpile to the U.S. for study and the remainder to Ukraine, to aid their war effort against Russia. Divestment of the S-400 is the surest indicator that Ankara intends to re-engage as a genuine ally of the United States and NATO.

Erdogan must terminate Turkey’s support of Hamas at all levels. This is a strategy being employed by Qatar, as it does not want to face retribution from the Trump administration. This is an opportunity for Turkey to dismantle Hamas’ infrastructure in Turkey, expel its operatives. In an ideal world, Turkey would agree to extradite Hamas operatives to Israel and share what it knows about Hamas with the Israeli government, but this is unrealistic. At the very least, Washington should make it clear that it will not tolerate any move by Hamas to relocate to Turkey, designating the NATO country as its new operating base outside Gaza.

Finally, Washington should take an uncompromising attitude to Erdogan’s ongoing war against the SDF. Turkey must be compelled to cease and desist all military operations against American partners, which stand to undermine and degrade ongoing counterterrorism missions against ISIS.

The satisfaction of the three broad areas of divergence, would present a platform where talks over rebuilding U.S.-Turkish ties could begin. It should not be the occasion which Turkey is rewarded with the sale of F-35’s. That has to be the end result of the rebuilding of trust, which Erdogan has wrecked in the last decade. The potential for Turkey to acquire strategic weapon systems from America is a discussion for a later date.

Sinan Ciddi is a non-resident senior fellow at FDD and an expert on Turkish politics.

Issues:

Issues:

International Organizations Israel Military and Political Power Russia Syria Turkey U.S. Defense Policy and Strategy

Topics:

Topics:

Adolf Hitler Ankara Benjamin Netanyahu Donald Trump Europe Gaza City Hamas Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant Ismail Haniyeh Israel Joe Biden Kamala Harris Khaled Mashal Kurds Lebanon Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Marco Rubio Middle East NATO Palestinians Qatar Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Russia S-400 missile system Syrian Democratic Forces Turkey Ukraine United Nations United States Vladimir Putin White House Yahya Sinwar