October 15, 2024 | FDD's Long War Journal

‘Axis of Resistance’ or ‘Axis of Espionage?’ Iran’s struggles to staff leadership

October 15, 2024 | FDD's Long War Journal

‘Axis of Resistance’ or ‘Axis of Espionage?’ Iran’s struggles to staff leadership

The Kuwaiti Al-Jarida newspaper reported on October 13 that Islamic Republic Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed the Quds Force deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh, as Hezbollah’s “supervisor” until a new secretary-general is named. Tehran’s failure to appoint a Lebanese successor for its crown jewel not only underscores Israel’s devastating blow to Hezbollah but also complicates the leadership dynamics within the “Axis of Resistance” after numerous high-level intelligence breaches.

Sanctioned by the United States and the United Kingdom in 2024 for terrorist financing, Fallahzadeh was appointed as the deputy commander of IRGC’s Quds Force in 2021. Prior, he served as the Quds Force deputy coordinator, and Iranian state media has glorified his role of fighting alongside former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani during the height of the Syrian Civil War. Fallahzadeh also led two IRGC ground force commands: Fajr 19 Division and Al-Ghadir 18 Brigade. His time overseeing IRGC ground forces, paired with his experience coordinating Iranian military efforts with Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, made him a prime candidate to implement Tehran’s damage-control strategy in Lebanon as Israel launches ground operations in that country’s south.

Fallahzadeh’s new responsibility comes at a desperate time for the Islamic Republic’s oldest proxy group. Not only has the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) eliminated Hassan Nasrallah’s successor as Hezbollah’s secretary-general, but it has also decapitated the group’s broader leadership. Since late September, the IDF has targeted approximately 20 high-ranking Hezbollah military and political officials, including leaders of combat units and those overseeing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and missile operations.

The regime in Tehran perceives the IDF’s tactical military victories in Lebanon as part of a greater troubling pattern: Israel’s intelligence superiority over that of the Islamic Republic. The depth of Mossad’s penetration of the regime’s intelligence apparatus—namely, the Ministry of Intelligence and IRGC Intelligence Division—has led to sophisticated assassination plots inside Iran targeting the likes of former Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh, Iranian Nuclear Chief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and many others. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently revealed that his administration’s secret intelligence unit tasked with identifying Israeli espionage operations in Iran was, in fact, led by a Mossad agent.

Israel’s intelligence campaign against the regime made headlines last week, with rumors alleging that the regime suspects IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Gha’ani of being a spy working at the behest of the Mossad. The Qatar-affiliated Middle East Eye claimed on October 10 that Gha’ani and his team are on house arrest and being investigated by the IRGC for potential ties to the Mossad. On the same day, Sky News Arabia reported that Gha’ani had suffered a heart attack while under interrogation under the suspicion of espionage for Israel. An identified source affiliated with President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government allegedly told IranWire that this administration is unable to confirm or deny whether Gha’ani is alive.

To counter these narratives, the Islamic Republic announced that Gha’ani would soon be awarded the “Fath” medal by Khamenei. Gha’ani eventually made a public appearance on October 14 at the funeral of IRGC General Abbas Nilforoushan, who was killed in the same Israeli strike that targeted Nasrallah. Gha’ani’s temporary disappearance amid the wave of assassinations of Hezbollah officials suggests that the Quds Force commander feared he could be the next casualty.

These instances of high-level security breaches both inside and outside Iran have created a state of panic among various leaders and institutions. Following the news of Nasrallah’s assassination, Khamenei was reportedly hiding in a secure location until he officially led Tehran’s Friday prayer a week later. The 85-year-old theocrat is now increasingly more paranoid about staffing the regime’s critical position vacancies both domestically and abroad. In this vacuum of reliable aides, Khamenei is compelled to increasingly entrust his son, Mojtaba, to spearhead initiatives on behalf of the Supreme Leader’s Office. In addition to the challenges of identifying a successor to his own reign after former President Ebrahim Raisi’s death, Khamenei’s Axis of Resistance struggles to appoint a trusted and experienced commander to navigate Hezbollah’s losing battle against Israel.

Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies focused on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence.

Issues:

Issues:

Hezbollah Iran Iran Global Threat Network Israel Israel at War Lebanon Military and Political Power

Topics:

Topics:

Ali Khamenei Axis of Resistance Bashar al-Assad Ebrahim Raisi Hamas Hassan Nasrallah Hezbollah Iran IranWire Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ismail Haniyeh Israel Israel Defense Forces Lebanon Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Masoud Pezeshkian Mohsen Fakhrizadeh Mossad Qasem Soleimani Qatar Quds Force Syrian civil war Tehran United Kingdom