Iran seeks ‘single front’ against US and Israel from Syria-Iraq – analysis

Iran is seeking to unify even more fronts against Israel and the US, Tasnim News, Iranian pro-regime and IRGC-linked media, reported on Tuesday, saying that Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Syria have been increasing their attacks on US forces, and as such are seeking a “single front and are targeting American and Israeli bases with synergy.”

This front now includes not only pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria that concentrate attacks on US bases, but also the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The details were announced the same day as at least 20 launches were identified crossing from Lebanon into Israeli territory, setting off alarms in the Golan and Hula Valley.

The threats against Israel in the US from Iran-backed groups

NBC reported on Tuesday that “rockets launched from Lebanon reached deeper into Israeli territory Monday than any since the 2006 war, as the Hezbollah militant group’s second-in-command threatened to escalate cross-border attacks if Israel continues its deadly assault on the Gaza Strip,” further noting that “the threats by Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general, in an exclusive interview with NBC News, came as Iranian-backed militant groups across the Middle East launched an unprecedented array of attacks against American targets.”

The threats from Hezbollah were repeated at Iran’s pro-regime Fars News. In that article, Hezbollah claimed that the US and Israel were both involved in the “invasion” of Gaza: “From the very first days of the operation of the Palestinian resistance forces known as Al-Aqsa Flood, Hezbollah started its missile and artillery attacks on the Zionist regime and these attacks continued.” This is the clearest evidence so far that Hezbollah coordinated its attacks on Israel after the Hamas massacre of October 7.

The Tasnim report provides some unique details that go beyond previous Iranian reports about attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. There have been around 40 attacks since October 7; the report notes that “the radius of operations of the Islamic resistance of Iraq covers from the ‘Port of Eilat’ in the southernmost point of occupied Palestine to the ‘Tal Bidr base’ in the extreme northeast of Syria.”

This is an open admission that Iranian proxies are coordinating with each other. The Houthis previously announced they had a joint operations room created specifically to target Israel, and have targeted Eilat several times. Some 60,000 Israelis who were evacuated or left border areas of Gaza and Lebanon are now seeking refuge in Eilat.

Now, Iran is openly pinpointing the bases that are being attacked in Iraq and Syria, noting as well the unification of the efforts by the Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria: “It is noteworthy that the geographical distance of Tel Bider [Tal Baydar] base from the areas under the influence of the resistance in Syria and Iraq, and this point shows that if the drones of the resistance reach Tel Bider, then none of the American military bases will have security throughout the territory of Syria and Iraq. They will not be immune from the resistance’s suicide drones,” the report reads.

It adds as well that the Tal Baydar base, which it spells slightly differently, is a “well-equipped base,” comparing it to the facility in Syria where US forces operate in the Al-Asad base in Iraq. It says both are “strategic” outposts for the US, that the US in Syria has “anti-aircraft, helicopter pads” and other capabilities. This is clearly a new threat and message from Iran.

At the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) researchers have also noted the Iranian increase in threats: “Iran increases the pressure on the US to stop the war in Gaza,” INSS researcher Sima Shine wrote. “Since the beginning of the war, the Iranian political elite has engaged in an extensive global diplomatic campaign, unusual in its intensity and scope, to curb the war in Gaza. The goal is to ensure the victory image of Hamas and allow it to remain in power in the Strip.”

The report continues: “Iran quickly realized that its diplomatic pressure in the regional and international arena was not enough to stop the war, and that it also had no direct leverage over Israel beyond what already existed, i.e. attacks by Hezbollah and the Houthis…”

Taken together, the pattern is clear. Iran now harnesses militias in Iraq and Syria and keys them in with the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon to carry out a regional series of increasing threats against both the US and Israel.

Seth J. Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow and The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.