China and the U.S. Are Careening Toward a South China Sea Crisis

Excerpt

Last November’s summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Woodside, California, was hailed as a harbinger of progress in stabilizing a superpower relationship that was spiraling toward conflict. Yet more than eight months later, it’s evident that leader-to-leader engagement merely extended the illusion of constructive bilateral engagement—reinforcing, rather than reversing, the declining trend lines in the U.S.-China relationship.

Indeed, the principal paradox of the Biden administration’s China policy lies in its unintended consequences. Far from mitigating Beijing’s brashness, Washington’s diplomatic overtures have instead emboldened Xi, who appears not merely disinterested in stabilizing relations but actively working to undermine them. Left unchecked, further accommodating Beijing’s aggression today could lead to Chinese overreach tomorrow, raising the specter of miscalculation—or worse, war.

Craig Singleton is a senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former U.S. diplomat. Twitter: @CraigMSingleton