NASA’s Moon Race With China Hinges on U.S. Commercial Readiness

The United States and China are racing to establish outposts near the moon’s south pole. The region’s water-ice deposits could potentially provide drinking water, oxygen, and rocket fuel, helping sustain long-term lunar operations and future deep-space missions.

NASA announced new projects and commercial contracts on November 7, advancing its Artemis program and laying groundwork for a U.S. moon base. This supports Washington’s space superiority goals, but readiness challenges across rockets, lunar landers, and spacesuits could complicate the planned 2028 moon landing.

Washington Is Building Lunar Infrastructure

A December 2025 executive order set the goals of returning Americans to the moon by 2028 and establishing initial elements of a permanent lunar outpost by 2030. NASA is advancing these directives.

The agency has awarded contracts for launch services, lunar landers, and orbital transfer vehicles (OTVs). All are critical for moon logistics: launch vehicles (rockets) facilitate access to orbit; lunar landers land supplies on the moon; and OTVs act like cargo trucks, ferrying large loads across space. NASA selected eight companies to compete for up to $10 billion in lunar-surface-delivery contracts over 10 years. It also awarded six transportation orders, including orders for launch and OTVs, worth approximately $1.3 billion. These contracts will be used to test cislunar — the region between Earth and the moon — space-cargo transfers and navigation technologies, alongside lunar landings.

NASA announced developments in communications infrastructure and a new research rover. The agency selected SpaceX for a 2028 demonstration to deploy communications satellites in cislunar space, which will inform the development of future cislunar communications networks. NASA is moving forward with developing its nuclear-powered PROMISE rover, designed to collect and analyze lunar dust samples to assess water-ice resources, and intends to launch in late 2028. Moreover, NASA is sharing cislunar research and technical findings with the U.S. Space Force, advancing U.S. government space collaboration.

Chinese Ambitions Are Raising the Stakes

China is pursuing nearly identical goals to NASA, elevating great power competition to the lunar stage and increasing pressure for U.S. space development timelines to remain on track.

Beijing is targeting a crewed lunar landing before 2030. According to November 1 reporting, Chinese engineers have completed rocket and lunar lander tests. China also has plans to establish a research station with Russia near the lunar south pole by 2035.

NASA’s “Moon shot” relies on commercial companies meeting development timelines. Artemis II’s April lunar flyby tested Orion, the capsule carrying the astronauts. Artemis III, targeted for mid-2027, will test Orion docking with prototype lunar landers while orbiting Earth. These landers will be used to ferry astronauts to and from the moon’s surface. Artemis IV will attempt the 2028 moon landing using whichever provider, Blue Origin or SpaceX, is ready first.

Blue Origin’s Blue Moon test lander will launch on the New Glenn rocket, whose return to flight is expected in January 2027 after a May ground-test explosion damaged its launchpad. This delay compresses preparations for Artemis III. SpaceX’s Starship lander requires multiple tanker launches and fuel transfers in Earth orbit before departing for the moon. Both lunar landers remain under development and must complete uncrewed demonstrations before carrying astronauts.

Spacesuits present a different bottleneck. NASA’s inspector general warned in April that development and testing challenges may complicate Axiom Space’s ability to meet the 2028 moon landing goal. Collins Aerospace’s 2024 withdrawal left NASA with a single next-generation spacesuit provider, increasing pressure on Axiom to deliver on schedule. NASA has announced a lighter “sortie suit” for initial moonwalks to ease timeline concerns, while Axiom continues developing a more capable spacesuit for sustained lunar operations.

U.S. Development Timelines Must Remain on Track

The House Science, Space, and Technology Committee and Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee should request an updated readiness assessment from NASA due by the end of January 2027. The briefing should cover remaining tests, dependency and timeline risks, and plans to keep Artemis and moon base development on track.

Emmerson Overell is a project coordinator at the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation (CCTI) at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where she researches threats to U.S. and allied security in the Arctic, space, and cyberspace. For more analysis from Emmerson and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_CCTI. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.