Letting the Houthis Control the Red Sea Coast Would Be a Gift to Tehran

What happened to not negotiating with terrorists?

American officials met with a Houthi delegation in Oman in the days after the Iran-backed group’s advance on Yemen’s west coast, which culminated in the September 11 seizure of territory along Bab al-Mandeb, the southern Red Sea chokepoint. The Houthis, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, claimed that the advance is not a threat as the group is only targeting Saudi shipping pursuant to its declaration in July of a maritime blockade of the Kingdom. At the Oman talks, the Houthis supposedly reiterated their commitment to the ceasefire with Washington that ended Operation Rough Rider, the American bombing campaign against the group in spring 2025.

The Saudis want American backing. Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman called President Donald Trump twice on September 10, as the Houthis were making headway, to request American airstrikes, but Trump refused. The president wants to focus on Iran itself and the Strait of Hormuz. 

But the conflict in Yemen is not a different war; it’s another front in Tehran’s fight against the United States. The Iranian regime is seeing its leverage slip away as Washington gradually restores the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Letting the Houthis control the Red Sea coast would give Tehran much of its leverage right back. 

Oil Markets Unsettled by Arabian Peninsula Instability

As the Houthis advanced, Saudi Arabia reported that a drone attack launched by Iran-backed militias in Iraq forced the closure of its East-West Pipeline, the Kingdom’s critical alternative to Persian Gulf exports. From April until late July, when the Houthi maritime blockade began, the pipeline had enabled an average of over 4 million crude barrels per day (bpd) — around 4 percent of global supply — in Saudi exports via the Red Sea.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, jumped to around $110 per barrel before settling at over $105 on September 10 as news of the pipeline attack and Houthi advance broke. One week earlier, when the Houthis began ground operations on Yemen’s west coast, Brent closed at just over $95. Oil prices have fallen slightly in recent days — though Brent remains over $100 — as Saudi repair efforts may return some capacity in a matter of days, earlier than previously anticipated.

Axis of Resistance Coordinating Across Theaters

By keeping oil prices high, Tehran wants to force an end to the U.S. blockade that deprives it of oil revenue. Blocking exports via Bab al-Mandeb may make that possible despite setbacks in the gulf. In April, for example, Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to the Tehran regime’s Supreme Leader, said that the regime “views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz.”

Despite Houthi attempt to portray the group’s advance as part of their domestic struggle, it is also an integral component of Iran’s war against the United States. President Trump said that Iran was probably behind the recent attack on the East-West Pipeline, which Riyadh attributed to Iran-backed militias in Iraq. In late July, Saudi Arabia assessed that some attacks on its energy infrastructure by these militias were conducted in coordination with the Houthis under the guidance of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

Washington Must Rebuff Houthi Attempts at Normalizing Their Position in Yemen 

As Washington disrupts Tehran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz by using it to move oil, it cannot allow the regime to maintain that same leverage over oil markets and global shipping by controlling a different waterway.

Washington should expand measures to isolate the Houthis — both financially and from weapon supply routes — even if the Trump administration does not want to join in military action against the group. The Treasury should sanction any financial institutions enabling Houthi access to the international system and front companies that enable the group to procure dual-use technologies. The administration should also instruct Oman to block Houthi financial access through institutions in Muscat. 

Bridget Toomey is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Bridget and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. Follow Bridget on X @BridgetKToomey. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.