Hamas’s Quiet Reconstitution Efforts

All signs point to a Hamas resurgence.

A new document from the IDF, reviewed by Israel’s Channel 13, assesses that the group is producing hundreds of explosives and surveilling IDF troops stationed in Gaza. Israeli journalist Moriah Asraf, who reviewed the report, called it the most “severe” document released by the IDF that she has viewed during her time covering the ceasefire.  

“The IDF chooses time after time to put in writing these warnings … so that nobody will be able to say that they did not know that Hamas is growing stronger,” Asraf said. The report, which made its way to the desks of both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, adds to indications that Hamas is threatening to reignite fighting in Gaza, ruining the truce that has prevailed since October 2025.

Hamas Engaged in Weapons Production, Military Exercises

The Channel 13 report assessed that Hamas is producing hundreds of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and anti-tank rockets each month. Hamas is also conducting training exercises in the nearly 40 percent of Gaza under its control.

Hamas is reportedly exploiting increased aid shipments to smuggle weapons and dual-use products. Israeli reports indicate that contraband is often concealed in the same boxes as permitted humanitarian goods, making inspection efforts imperfect.

Israel’s aid inspection mechanisms have also, on occasion, been marred by Israelis participating in smuggling themselves, including assisting in smuggling electronics like cell phones. In February, reports emerged that Hamas was also utilizing seaborne smuggling with “drift-containers” to float dual-use contraband from the Sinai Peninsula onto Gaza’s shores for collection.

Hamas has also reportedly been collecting taxes of up to 30 percent from Gazan merchants selling the humanitarian aid that enters Gaza. The merchant tax is in addition to a reported 15-25 percent tax on private sector aid cargo flowing into Gaza, according to a January Israeli report. These streams of income have assisted the rebuilding of its armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, which some Israeli officials estimate to have reached a strength of 27,000 members.

Hamas’s Attempts To Consolidate Power

Meanwhile, Hamas is attempting to hinder the truce from progressing toward the goals laid out in President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan. Israel’s KAN news reported on May 12 that armed Hamas members had prevented Gazan contractors from working to prepare the site of a new, reconstructed Palestinian city in IDF-controlled Rafah in southern Gaza.

Hamas has also attempted to “integrate” its loyalists into ministerial positions that would eventually be controlled by the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), the body of Palestinian technocrats designed to replace Hamas as part of Washington’s plan.

The group attempted to incorporate 10,000 of its police officers into the force that NCAG is expected to manage. On May 8, Israeli media reported that Palestinians who served as Hamas civil servants in the past have been allowed to apply to the force but will need to undergo vetting by Israel’s domestic intelligence service Shin Bet.

Board of Peace Should Take Back Demands With Consequences

The U.S.-led Board of Peace (BOP) — the Trump administration-created international initiative tasked with overseeing the Gaza ceasefire — has blamed Hamas for the current failings of the ceasefire in Gaza. On April 30, the board stated, “For those actually wanting to help Gaza … use whatever influence you have to maintain the pressure on Hamas, so they fulfill their obligations,” above all, the need to disarm.  

But the BOP should recognize that the IDF may be forced to address the threat still posed by Hamas. Recent reports indicate that Hamas may seek to use deadly First-Person View (FPV) drone attacks against IDF troops in Gaza, reflecting its ally Hezbollah’s efforts in southern Lebanon.

The BOP should also stick to its deadlines. The early April ultimatum for Hamas to accept disarmament came and went without consequence. If Hamas continues to undermine the ceasefire by refusing to lay down its weapons, the BOP should assert clearly that the terror group, not the IDF, is at fault.

Aaron Goren is a research analyst and editor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Aaron and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. Follow Aaron on X @RealAaronGoren. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.