Will the Next UN Leader Be Good for America?

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s time in office is coming to an end, which raises the question: Who will lead the world’s most important multilateral body next?

The 2026 secretary-general (UNSG) selection comes amid heightened geopolitical competition and institutional strain within the United Nations. The candidates offer competing visions of global governance, specifically regarding UN budgetary concerns, amid increased global warfare, a U.S. inclination to disengage from the United Nations, and a Chinese history of trying to co-opt it, including through debt-based financing and diplomatic pressure.

The United Nations interviewed leading candidates this week, the most transparent step in the selection process. With most UNSGs serving two five-year terms, the result will shape the United Nations and affect the world more broadly for the next decade and beyond.

The UNSG is a complex role, serving as the chief UN administrator, stewarding the organization’s priorities, including its mission of conflict prevention, and overseeing and shaping the work of several UN bodies. The interviews — hearings really — held before the UN General Assembly (UNGA), give candidates an opportunity to present their qualifications, priorities, and governing philosophies.

This term’s selection process, formally opened in November 2025, will unfold throughout 2026, culminating in a Security Council recommendation and a UNGA appointment before the new secretary-general assumes office on January 1, 2027. While multiple candidates have entered or are expected to enter the race, Rafael Grossi of Argentina and Michelle Bachelet of Chile have emerged as the front-runners.

The Secretary-General Selection Process

Though interviews are held before the UNGA, the decision remains firmly in the hands of the five permanent Security Council members (P5): the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China. All five nations can veto any candidate unsuitable for their vision of the United Nations.

The process unfolds in several stages, beginning with UNGA member states nominating candidates who are then required to submit resumes and vision statements that are made public. The UNGA then hosts a series of informal dialogues, starting this week, where candidates answer questions from governments and nongovernmental organizations.

However, the decisive phase takes place behind closed doors. Beginning in the summer, the Security Council conducts a series of polls and dialogues to gauge support for each candidate. Candidates who face opposition from any permanent member are eliminated. If no candidate can secure consensus, the council retains the option to introduce entirely new names late in the process.

Ultimately, once all five permanent members agree on a candidate, the Security Council formally recommends that individual to the UNGA, which then holds a largely ceremonial vote to confirm the appointment.

The Stakes of the 2026 Selection

The secretary-general position is unofficially decided on a regional rotation, with the next UNSG expected to come from Latin America. There is a growing push — supported by European states and reform coalitions — to install the first female secretary-general.

The United Nations faces “imminent financial collapse,” according to Guterres, which could force budget and staffing cuts. The new secretary-general will inevitably confront difficult questions about the organization’s priorities as it tries to collect approximately $4.6 billion in arrears from the United States. The current U.S. administration distrusts the United Nations, and Congress will likely push to tie payment of the debt to major institutional and political reform.

With uncertain financial prospects, morale among UN staff is low. There is near-universal criticism of Guterres as a poor leader who has failed to address the issues facing the United Nations or sustain its relevance to peacebuilding and peacekeeping. Some speak of the need for an organizational leader rather than a politician or a humanitarian.

With its peacekeeping operations in decline, its economic and social interventions (e.g., those related to the environment and women’s rights) failing to meet their goals, and its normalization of corrupt and authoritarian regimes — particularly in its human rights bodies — the United Nations could conceivably find itself relegated to functioning as one humanitarian aid organization among many. One of the following candidates may be selected to lead the United Nations through its current crisis.

THE CANDIDATES

Rafael Grossi

Current Position: Director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Nationality: Argentina

Background and Experience

Grossi has led the IAEA since 2019. His career spans decades in nuclear diplomacy, including leadership roles in the Nuclear Suppliers Group and Argentina’s foreign service, as well as ambassadorial postings to NATO and the IAEA. Grossi has touted his record of raising the IAEA’s female staffing percentage from 28 to 52.

Policy Orientation and Record

Grossi’s IAEA tenure has been defined by a firm stance on nuclear nonproliferation, particularly regarding Iran. He has repeatedly pushed for transparency and compliance, aligning with longstanding U.S. concerns about Tehran’s nuclear program.

At the same time, Grossi has demonstrated a pragmatic, and at times controversial, approach to Russia. He has engaged directly with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin while avoiding direct attribution of responsibility for attacks near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which helped get IAEA inspectors stationed there.

Assessment

Grossi is a technocratic, experienced international operator with strong credentials in multilateral diplomacy who is aligned with Western security priorities, most critically on Iran. He may represent a pragmatic but imperfect option, potentially susceptible to political pressure from authoritarian powers.

Michelle Bachelet

Position: Former president of Chile; Former UN high commissioner for human rights; Former executive director of UN Women

Nationality: Chile

Background and Experience

Bachelet served two terms as president of Chile, led UN Women, and served as the UN high commissioner for human rights until August 2022.

Policy Orientation and Record

China: Bachelet’s 2022 visit to China was tightly controlled by Beijing, and she employed language consistent with Chinese government narratives, referring to internment camps as “vocational education and training centers” and framing the repression of Uyghurs as counterterrorism.

She also delayed the release of a major UN report documenting abuses in Xinjiang until the final minutes of her tenure, simultaneously raising concerns about her susceptibility to political pressure from and her acceptability to Beijing.

Latin America: Bachelet has also faced scrutiny over her reluctance to forcefully criticize the Nicolas Maduro regime in Venezuela. Critics have similarly pointed to what they describe as a “spotty record” in addressing human rights abuses in Cuba, raising broader questions about the selective application of human rights standards and her willingness to confront governments ideologically aligned with her.

Israel: Bachelet is perhaps the most anti-Israel candidate in the race. During her tenure as the UN high commissioner for human rights, she criticized Israel disproportionately and presided over a period of heightened institutional scrutiny of the Jewish state. Bachelet also oversaw the publication of a “blacklist” of businesses operating in the West Bank, a UN-sponsored tool for boycotting Israel.

Assessment

Bachelet’s candidacy raises significant concerns for U.S. policymakers and allies. Her candidacy was further undermined when her home country of Chile rescinded its support on March 24.

The Rest of the Field

Beyond Grossi and Bachelet, several other candidates have entered or are expected to enter the race.

• Maria Fernanda Espinosa (Ecuador): Former UNGA president with a focus on climate and gender issues but without a well-defined record on major geopolitical flashpoints, such as U.S.-China competition, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and Middle East security.

• Kristalina Georgieva (Bulgaria): A highly experienced economic leader, though past controversies involving alleged data manipulation related to China may hinder her candidacy.

• Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica): A technocratic candidate focusing primarily on climate and gender. Grynspan, the former vice president of Costa Rica, now heads the UN Conference on Trade and Development, from which the White House withdrew for not aligning with U.S. interests.

• Macky Sall (Senegal): A candidate who brings significant international experience but faces geopolitical and regional hurdles. Notably, Sall was not endorsed by the African Union despite being the only African candidate in the race.

While these candidates could emerge as compromise options, particularly in the event of a deadlock, they currently remain secondary players in the race.

Conclusion: A Choice With Strategic Consequences

For the United States, the stakes are clear. The next secretary-general will shape the United Nations’ posture on critical issues, including nuclear nonproliferation, human rights enforcement, and the treatment of U.S. allies. Washington must therefore engage proactively in the selection process, leveraging its diplomatic influence within the Security Council to ensure that the outcome aligns with its strategic interests.

The United States cannot afford to let its adversaries seize the world’s most important international institution.

David May is a research manager and senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Theodore Schneiderman is an intern. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. Follow David on X @DavidSamuelMay. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.