Can Iran’s environment be saved?

Much of the global conversation about Iran revolves around security, conflict, and nuclear risk. What is less discussed is an environmental collapse already unfolding, with consequences that extend well beyond its borders.

In recent weeks, as US and Israeli strikes have targeted the Islamic regime’s military infrastructure, public attention has also turned to vast underground tunnel networks used to house missile systems, some carved deep into mountains over decades.

As Iran’s environmental crisis deepens, these networks reveal the scale at which the regime has mobilized land, resources, and engineering capacity for its military agenda rather than for environmental protection or public infrastructure.

This points to a broader reality: Iran’s environmental strain is not only the result of neglect or mismanagement, but also of deliberate policies that have redirected natural and economic resources toward militarization at the expense of long-term sustainability.

These policies have pushed the country’s water resources, ecosystems, and air quality to the edge of collapse. In recent years, millions of Iranians have lived without reliable access to clean water or breathable air. Aquifers have been depleted, rivers have dried, and major cities face hazardous levels of air pollution.

The recent military action by the United States and Israel comes against a regime that has systematically exploited Iran’s resources in pursuit of military and ideological goals, with lasting consequences both inside and beyond its borders. These developments have already weakened a regime that has long been a major source of global instability, but what comes next will shape not only Iran’s political trajectory but also the future of its landscape, and with it, regional stability.

If the Islamic Republic remains in place, regardless of how it is presented, the outcome is not difficult to predict; the current trajectory points toward environmental collapse.

Over more than four decades, the regime has demonstrated neither the capacity nor the willingness to preserve the country’s resources or to ground its governance in science. Under political and economic pressure, such systems tend to reinforce existing patterns rather than pursue meaningful reform.

The result is an environmentally exhausted state facing water scarcity, uninhabitable regions, toxic air, and accelerating ecological decline.

Environmental crises do not respect borders. Dust storms originating in Iran already affect neighboring countries. Water mismanagement in shared basins contributes to regional tensions. As ecosystems fail, livelihoods disappear, driving migration and placing additional strain on neighboring countries.

A collapsing environment in Iran is not only a national tragedy; it is a driver of economic, environmental, and social instability at both the regional and global levels.

The regime, or any remnants of it, is unlikely to attempt meaningful reforms. Even if it did, it would face a fundamental constraint: the absence of public trust.

Environmental recovery is not only a technical challenge; it depends on public confidence, without which meaningful change is nearly impossible.

Water conservation, resource management, and ecological restoration all depend on societal cooperation. This requires legitimacy, credibility, and a shared national vision.

The current regime does not have this trust and cannot rebuild it. Decades of unfulfilled promises and disregard for public demands, reflected in nationwide protests that were repeatedly suppressed, have made meaningful confidence unattainable. Recent public reactions to reports of underground missile tunnel construction and its environmental impact offer a clear example of this continuing breakdown.

If the current regime remains, Iran will continue on a path toward environmental collapse, driving mass migration, destabilizing neighboring countries, and undermining regional investment in sustainability and cooperation.

The path forward

Any viable path forward must be grounded in public trust. In today’s Iran, that trust is not broadly distributed but is increasingly concentrated around Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as a unifying national figure. Across different regions and segments of society, his name has been repeatedly voiced in protests, often at significant personal risk.

In response to his calls, millions of Iranians have taken to the streets, both inside Iran and abroad, expressing support for him as a leader of a transition toward a democratic and secular Iran. This reflects a level of recognition and legitimacy that distinguishes him from any other figure in the current landscape.

Environmental recovery requires exactly this kind of trust. Without it, even the most well-designed plans cannot be implemented.

This credibility has not emerged suddenly; it has been built over the years through the Crown Prince’s continued engagement. His sustained focus on environmental concerns, which have remained part of his public positions over time, has also resonated with many Iranians. He is widely seen as a national figure capable of bringing people together around a shared goal of rebuilding and preserving the country.

This alignment between leadership and public confidence allows policies to move beyond rhetoric and into execution, something that has been absent in Iran for over four decades.

Restoration efforts could attract international investment, enable regional cooperation, and position Iran as a contributor to environmental stability rather than a source of disruption. In this context, initiatives such as the Cyrus Accords, proposed by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, point to new opportunities for environmental collaboration between Iran, Israel, and neighboring countries.

A recovering Iran could participate in regional water initiatives, climate adaptation efforts, and sustainability-driven economic development. It could evolve into a hub for environmental innovation and sustainable tourism, leveraging its geography, history, and human capital.

Shirin Goli is an environmental engineering consultant and coordinator the environment group of the Iran Prosperity Project, a national political-economic plan put forth by the National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI). Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior advisor on Iran and financial economics at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and director of the Iran Prosperity Project.