Will Turkey Invade Iran?

Excerpt

Prior to the start of US and Israeli military strikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran, Turkey attempted to maintain a poker face, urging de-escalation and denying rumors of planned action from Ankara. Now that an attempt is underway to remove Iran’s theocratic regime, the United States must remain vigilant about Turkish military actions. 

Turkey’s government, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has refrained from taking part in the conflict. Instead, despite several US allies coming around to support the military action, Erdogan has chosen to condemn the strikes. Erdogan even expressed “sadness” for the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who was eliminated in the opening hours of the war. 

Turkey’s reticence to take part in this evolving regional war for now does not mean that its actions will be limited to rhetoric indefinitely. Erdogan is calculating his next moves to best capitalize on what may become an opportune crisis. For now, Ankara is highlighting national security concerns arising from migratory pressures along its eastern border with Iran. Erdogan has taken to calling regional counterparts in the Arab Gulf in a fruitless round of telephone diplomacy, attempting to garner support for a ceasefire—without which he claims the Middle East will be engulfed in a “ring of fire.” 

Ankara has chosen not to participate in combat operations with Washington, its treaty ally, to remove the regime in Tehran. This helps to explain why Iran has not targeted military assets in Turkey thus far, as it has done with several Arab states like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow on Turkey at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington, DC, where William Doran is an intern.