Israel Strikes Tehran Regime’s Assembly of Experts, Underlining Efforts to Disrupt Succession Process

Israel’s military isn’t making it easy for the Islamic Republic of Iran to choose a new leader. On March 3, the Israeli Air Force reportedly carried out strikes against a building housing the Assembly of Experts in Qom, Iran. The body, made up of 88 senior clerics, is responsible for electing and overseeing the supreme leader of Iran.

With Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in the conflict’s opening decapitation strikes, the assembly must now select a new supreme leader. The Israeli strike is another blow to the Islamic Republic’s effort, already in disarray, to ensure unified, decisive leadership.

Disrupting the Selection of a New Supreme Leader

It wasn’t clear if any of the 88 members of the Assembly of Experts were in the building at the time of the strikes. Israeli reports said the council secretary and multiple officials responsible for counting Supreme Council votes were killed in the strikes, and the ballot box used for official voting was destroyed.

Earlier in the day, the Islamic Republic’s interim leadership council, consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and senior cleric Alireza Arafi, met for the third time since Khamenei’s death. At this stage, only Arafi and Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei, have the institutional credentials to be considered viable candidates for the supreme leadership.

Regime Elements Using Schools as Shields Following Intensified Attacks

On the third day of the joint U.S. and Israeli operation, strikes expanded beyond command centers and military facilities to target internal security infrastructure nationwide. Since February 28, targets have included bases belonging to the Basij forces — a paramilitary force under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that has brutally suppressed protest movements in Iran — IRGC headquarters buildings, police stations, as well as special police units in Tehran and at least 15 other Iranian cities.

In a tactic familiar from the war in Gaza, at least some representatives of the regime appear to be using civilian structures as a safe haven. Ismail Baghaei, the spokesperson for the Islamic Republic’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, held a press conference on March 3 in a school in Tehran. Other images show police stationed in the Roqaiiyeelementary school in Tehran, while videos depict the regime’s security forces using a local school as a base in the city of Qazvin, too.

Regime Deploys Forces Across Tehran

After the U.S. and Israeli bombing of military and police sites, the IRGC Intelligence Organization said “the enemy’s plan” had shifted to fomenting street unrest. The organization warned that any activity it deems disruptive will be treated as direct cooperation with the enemy.

Tehran’s residents describe the city as a “ghost town,” saying streets are largely empty aside from IRGC checkpoints and mobile patrols throughout the city.

“There are checkpoints on every street and alley,” said one resident. Despite celebrations following Khamenei’s death, there has been little sign of a return of protesters to the streets, as had been seen in December and January. Those demonstrations were violently suppressed by the regime, with as many as 30,000 protesters killed.

Aaron Goren is a research analyst and editor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence. Follow Janatan on X @JanatanSayeh. For more analysis from Aaron and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aaron on X @RealAaronGoren. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.