How US Strikes on Iran Can Aid the Protest Movement

Excerpt

As the United States’ efforts at diplomacy with Iran stall, the US military is moving additional assets into the Middle East in preparation for war. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei refuses to dismantle the Islamic Republic’s uranium enrichment capacity and shields the ballistic missile program from negotiations. If talks collapse, the question is not simply whether the United States can use force, but how to align military action with Iran’s ongoing protest movement so that pressure accelerates regime fracture rather than suppresses it.

Israel’s June 2025 strikes inside Iran, codenamed “Operation Rising Lion,” were an early attempt to link internal unrest with external pressure on the clerical regime; the name itself invoked Iran’s pre-1979 imagery in a plea for the Islamic Republic’s overthrow. Despite Israeli efforts to spur protests, however, Iranians stayed home as contradictory messaging from Washington and Jerusalem paired calls to rise up with evacuation warnings. Iranians also tended to view Israel as initiating the conflict rather than responding to regime aggression, thereby muddying the political framing—even though the strikes also failed to trigger a rally-round-the-flag effect for Tehran. Force alone did not mobilize the streets because it was not synchronized with a coherent political narrative inside Iran.

Nearly nine months later, the political environment is different. Iranians answered Trump’s calls for protests and pleaded for American intervention, regarding US action as indispensable help rather than the start of a new confrontation. After Iran accepted the aid of foreign militiamen from its Iraqi and Lebanese terror proxies to kill unarmed Iranian protesters, the protest movement appears far more willing to tolerate foreign intervention from its allies abroad. Ultimately, Iranians view the unrest as a revolutionary rupture centered on clear leadership and a defined transition plan that places Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi at the helm.

Airstrikes Can Aid Iran’s Protest Movement—if Timed Correctly

If Trump launches an extensive campaign resembling the 12-Day War, it would likely target senior leadership and missile stockpiles. Crucially, it should also include the forces actively suppressing protesters, paired with disciplined sequencing and direct communication to Iranians. Clear guidance on when and where to mobilize would reduce the risk of civilians entering strike zones and would extend momentum beyond Tehran into major provincial cities. Any prospective strategy should measure success not only by battlefield damage, but also by whether it shifts the internal balance of power without drawing the United States into another ground war.

Janatan Sayeh is the Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies focused on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence.