Rafah Crossing to Reopen for Pedestrians as Fragile Gaza Ceasefire Moves to Second Phase

Latest Developments

• Coordination With Egypt: Israel announced that it will reopen the Rafah Crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt on February 1 for the first time since Israeli forces captured it in May 2024. The reopening would allow people to enter and exit Gaza but not aid or other supplies. “Exit from and entry into the Gaza Strip via the Rafah Crossing will be permitted in coordination with Egypt, following prior security clearance of individuals by Israel, and under the supervision of the European Union mission,” Israel’s Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) stated.
• Stipulations Involved: Gaza residents entering or leaving the coastal enclave would need Egyptian approval. Egyptian authorities would then send a list of names to Israel’s Shin Bet domestic security service for individual review to ensure that no terror operative is permitted to leave. While the crossing would be operated by Palestinian Authority representatives and monitors from the European Union, Israel would oversee the operation from a remote location and control the exit gate, using facial recognition software to verify that all persons leaving the Gaza Strip are on an approved list of names. Gazan residents entering the strip from Egypt will be screened at an IDF checkpoint before being allowed to continue onward. 
• Trump Administration Bullish on Hamas Disarmament: President Donald Trump said on January 29 that Hamas appears to be moving toward comprehensive disarmament. “A lot of people said they’ll never disarm. It looks like they’re going to disarm,” the president stated, while special envoy Steve Witkoff claimed that Hamas has “no choice,” predicting that the group would “give up their AK-47s.” Meanwhile, senior Hamas politburo member Mousa Abu Marzouk stated on January 28 that Hamas “at no point [spoke] about surrendering [its] weapons.”

FDD Expert Response

“It’s good to see Israel, as usual, fulfilling its obligations under the Gaza peace plan in stark contrast to Hamas. Qatar and Turkey will continue to lie about Israeli violations or non-compliance, but the Trump administration can clearly see where the roadblocks reside. The key to success is in forcing Qatar and Turkey to fulfill their obligations by making Hamas understand that it must comply or be finished off by the IDF.” — Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Fellow

“Opening the Rafah border crossing is a positive sign for the ceasefire in Gaza. But only full and permanent disarmament of Hamas can create stability. The Rafah border may bolster the terrorist group’s rearmament efforts, providing a reopened smuggling route for weapons and dual-use supplies Hamas will use for terror purposes. Both Israel and the U.S. must recognize this possibility and implement safeguards to prevent it.” — Aaron Goren, Research Analyst and Editor

FDD Background and Analysis

“Israel’s hostage agony finally ends — but its Gaza mission is far from over,” by Mark Dubowitz

“Remains of Ran Gvili, Last Hostage in Gaza, Returned to Israel,” FDD Flash Brief

“Trump Administration Should Be Wary of Granting Qatar and Turkey Executive Power in Gaza,” by Aaron Goren and Ben Cohen

“As Gaza ceasefire plan progresses, IDF reports Palestinian terrorists violate first phase 11 times from January 9 to 22,” by Samuel Ben-Ur and Aaron Goren