Why Iraq’s Next Government Won’t Shake off Iran’s Influence

Excerpt

The man Iraq’s Shia leadership picked as their candidate to lead the country, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, won’t get an American nod of approval. Maliki was announced on January 24, two and a half months after the country’s parliamentary election, and only three days later, President Donald Trump objected, saying, “If [Maliki is] elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq.”

Despite the announcement by the Coordination Framework, the Shia bloc that led Iraq’s previous government, Maliki’s selection doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily get the job. The Coordination Framework resolved its internal deadlock by selecting Maliki, but it did not reach full consensus on the choice. This could complicate Maliki’s navigation of the remaining hurdles in Iraq’s multi-step government formation process, and Trump’s objection certainly doesn’t help his chances. 

Regardless of Maliki’s success, it’s unlikely that whoever takes over in Iraq will be their own man. And it’s not just about Trump and the United States; the Islamic Republic of Iran’s influence is felt everywhere in Iraq.

The Trump administration has high hopes for Iraq in the coming years, which range from wresting the country from Tehran’s clutches to promoting development and economic growth. Unfortunately for the White House, Iran-backed Shia parties were big winners in the November elections. Just days after the ballots were cast, the Coordination Framework declared itself the largest bloc and announced its intention to form the next government. 

Bridget Toomey is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD),  focusing on Iranian proxies, specifically Iraqi militias and the Houthis.