Venezuela’s Intelligence Chief Remains a Danger Despite Maduro Ouster

If he doesn’t want an all-expenses-paid trip to the United States in the middle of the night, Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello needs to better hew to the U.S. line, the Trump administration said in a public warning.

Cabello is one of the three most powerful people in Venezuela since the U.S. removal of Nicolas Maduro, alongside Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez and interim President Delcy Rodriguez. Given Cabello and Lopez’s longstanding rivalry and his strong ideological convictions that run counter to Rodriguez’s more conciliatory tone, the United States appears worried Cabello could challenge Venezuela’s fragile status quo. At the same time, taking direct action against Cabello could lead to violence. Local armed gangs called “colectivos” are influenced by him, but decentralized enough to operate independently without his restraint.

Cabello Is a Chavista Purist

Cabello is a founding figure of Chavismo — a socialist, explicitly anti-U.S. ideology pioneered by deceased Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez — and one of the regime’s most ideologically rigid power brokers. Over three decades, he has rotated through senior posts, including state governor, National Assembly president, vice president, and internal security chief, while serving as the regime’s chief enforcer. He goes on his weekly television program, Con el Mazo Dando, or “Bringing Down the Hammer,” to publicly threaten political opponents and promote ideological loyalty.

Cabello’s armed colectivos act as paramilitary enforcers, dominate poor neighborhoods, distribute state goods, and violently suppress dissent with near-total impunity. The colectivo model draws heavily from Cuba’s Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, where grassroot militias serve as the “eyes and ears of the Castro government.”

Since April 2024, he has led the Ministry of Interior, Justice, and Peace, overseeing intelligence services, police, and internal security forces accused of extrajudicial killings and torture. U.S. authorities have accused him of leading the Cartel de los Soles cocaine network, he is designated under the Kingpin Act, and indicted for narco-terrorism. Cabello has also served as a visible political liaison to Havana. As United Socialist Party of Venezuela’s (PSUV) vice president, he traveled to Cuba and met Cuban Communist Party leader Raúl Castro in 2019.

Trump Prioritizes Stability Over Democracy (For Now)

Since Maduro’s removal, Washington has prioritized short-term stability over immediate democratization. The United States has allowed Rodríguez to assume the interim presidency, while leaving senior regime figures such as Cabello and López in place to keep the state functioning. Reuters reported that CIA assessments concluded the Venezuelan opposition lacked the capacity to maintain order after Maduro’s capture, and that a rapid purge risked chaos or even a counter-coup.

Washington views Padrino as essential for holding the armed forces together, while Cabello is being managed rather than immediately removed to prevent a violent backlash from his armed loyalists. The Trump administration is using this interim arrangement to press for curbing narcotics trafficking and reviving Venezuela’s oil industry with U.S. participation, while, at the same time, severing Cuban, Iranian, Chinese, and Russian ties.

Cabello Is Not a True Potential U.S. Partner

In the short term, the United States should continue a narrow, conditional tolerance of Cabello to preserve stability, while systematically stripping him of real power. This should be done slowly. If the colectivos collaborated with the intelligence services — and Cabello controls both — they could execute a coup against Rodriguez or pressure her to work against American priorities. American intelligence and law enforcement should intensify efforts to map, penetrate, and fracture the colectivos, reducing Cabello’s capacity to spark violence.

Simultaneously, Washington should maintain maximum legal and financial pressure. Cabello’s U.S. indictments, Treasury sanctions, and narcotics designation should remain firmly in place. Once Venezuela has stabilized sufficiently, the United States should move decisively to force his removal — through exile, arrest, or extradition under existing indictments.

Samuel Ben-Ur is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Sam and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on foreign policy and national security.