Lebanon Must Continue Publicly Dismantling Active Hezbollah Installations

Lebanese news outlet Al Jadeed published three leaked images on January 6 allegedly showing Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldiers seizing a massive Hezbollah installation located south of the Litani River — between Kafra and Siddiqine — in mid-December. As it approaches the Mediterranean, the Litani runs about 20 miles north of the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Lebanese media alleged Israel had repeatedly targeted, but failed to damage, the supposedly 7 km-long installation. The LAF reportedly dismantled only 40 percent of the sizable installation prior to the leak, discovering three cruise missiles, almost 2,000 122 mm rockets, millions of AK-47 rounds, and at least one Soviet-manufactured drone modified by Hezbollah.

After the November 2024 ceasefire took effect, Hezbollah agreed to keep its forces north of the Litani, while the LAF took responsibility for demilitarizing the area south of the river. While this seizure is a welcome step from Beirut, it remains unclear whether its purpose is mainly cosmetic or whether it portends a consistent effort by Lebanese authorities to prevent Hezbollah’s regeneration south of the Litani.

Beirut Wants To Seem Active Against Hezbollah

Since the ceasefire went into effect, Lebanon has been seeking to leverage the appearance of action against Hezbollah to bring about an end to Israel’s ongoing military operations and presence in the country, which consists of five posts in the south. Hezbollah also has good reason to encourage the belief that the LAF is taking action against it south of the Litani.

The LAF issued a declaration that it has taken “operation control” over the area south of the Litani. Beirut is trying to leverage that control to secure Israeli concessions. The Lebanese are reportedly seeking an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon, return of Lebanese detainees in Israeli custody, and a cessation of Israel’s operations before the government decides if they will proceed with the second phase of Hezbollah’s disarmament north of the Litani and south of the Awali River. Sources told Ad-Diyar that this second phase will require a relatively long period to implement. Hezbollah, which is suffering near-daily losses in personnel and assets at Israeli hands, therefore has a vested stake in the success of Lebanese diplomatic efforts.

Beirut Has a Record of Doing Less Than It Claims

Despite the LAF’s declaration of operational control south of the Litani, Israeli operations continue to target Hezbollah assets and personnel allegedly involved in the group’s regeneration efforts there. Beirut’s self-appointed deadline for demilitarizing that sector was December 31, so Israel understandably questions the LAF’s supposed achievement. This inconsistency amplifies Lebanon’s post-ceasefire record of overpromising and underdelivering on disarming Hezbollah. Relatedly, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem dismissed the LAF’s disarmament efforts in July, saying, “They’re talking about what they’ve seen south of the Litani River, but thank God the country is vast.”

These confluent factors create the impression that Tuesday’s media leak could plausibly be part of a broader Lebanese effort to deceive the international community — one in which Hezbollah has reason to participate. Coupled with Lebanon’s history of prevaricating on disarming or restraining Hezbollah — and because the overwhelming Shiite support that has historically restrained Beirut from acting against the group remains intact — the Lebanese will find it difficult to dispel reasonable suspicions regarding their sincerity. That is, unless the seizure disclosed on Tuesday becomes part of a consistent, public, demonstrable, and sufficiently documented pattern instead of mere declarations.

Options for Washington

The United States can adopt a two-pronged approach to encouraging Lebanon to pursue this course. On the one hand, Washington can support a tempo of Israeli operations that remains short of full-scale war but that matches or, ideally, exceeds the pace of the group’s regeneration efforts. It can simultaneously press Lebanon to begin seizing and publicly disclosing Hezbollah installations, beginning south, and then proceeding north of the Litani, where the group has objected to disarmament, and with no preconditions. If that is achieved, the United States can then press Israel to gradually reduce and finally end its operations and presence in Lebanon – in parallel with Hezbollah’s total disarmament.

David Daoud is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon affairs. For more analysis from David and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow David on X @DavidADaoud. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.