Venezuelan Oil Exports Continued Despite U.S. Escalation in November

U.S. pressure on Venezuela’s strongman, Nicolás Maduro, is increasing — his cartel has just been designated a terrorist organization and an American aircraft carrier group is circling off his coast — but the country’s oil exports aren’t going down. According to TankerTrackers, despite mounting pressure, Caracas exported 967,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude, fuel oil, and methanol in November, all of which funds the regime’s oppression machine and buys loyalty. These robust oil exports undermine a U.S. policy focused on ousting Maduro from power.

A Carve Out Keeps U.S. Oil Imports Robust

Crude oil exports alone reached 784,000 bpd, surpassing the 2025 average of 751,000 bpd. China remained Venezuela’s primary lifeline, absorbing 613,000 bpd.

The United States remained a key destination, importing 150,000 bpd. This trade persists despite severe sanctions due to General License 41A/41B  (GL 41A/41B), a legal carve-out issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). This license permits U.S. energy majors, notably Chevron, to export Venezuelan crude under strict “debt-for-oil” conditions. The mechanism allows these companies to recoup unpaid debts from the state-run petroleum company PDVSA while prohibiting any direct cash payments, taxes, or royalties to the Maduro administration.

Additionally, Venezuela exported 136,000 bpd of fuel oil, primarily to China (133,000 bpd) and Cuba (3,000 bpd), and 46,000 bpd of methanol to markets in China, Brazil, and the Netherlands.

Russian Naphtha: A Critical Lifeline

Venezuela’s ability to export heavy crude is dependent on another country under U.S. sanctions: Russia. Because Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt produces extra-heavy crude that functions like sludge at room temperature, the use of a diluent like naphtha is essential for blending the oil for pipeline transport. In November, Caracas imported 419,000 barrels of Russian naphtha.

This delivery highlights a strategic pivot: Caracas has ceased imports of Iranian light-grade oil, last seen in 2023, and fully switched to Russian suppliers.

Operation Southern Spear Gets Underway

While oil flows out, U.S. military pressure has increased. On November 13, the Pentagon launched Operation Southern Spear, deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group and USS Iwo Jima to the Caribbean. These maneuvers involved lethal interdictions against what the United States calls Venezuelan “narco-terrorists” resulting in more than 80 casualties since September 2025. The pressure culminated on November 29 with a White House warning that effectively closed Venezuelan airspace, placing the regime under a de facto quarantine.

Treasury Department Tightens the Noose on Maduro

Simultaneously, the economic war escalated on November 24 when the State Department designated the Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns), which the United States says is headed by Nicolas Maduro, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). The FTO designation expands material-support prosecutions, asset freezes, immigration consequences, and increases pressure on Maduro.

This lays the groundwork for a “zero-tolerance” environment for maritime trade. Compliance departments at global insurers and banks will come under pressure to sever ties with Venezuela’s oil export infrastructure to avoid criminal liability for “material support” of a terrorist group. This regulatory siege lays the groundwork for further actions, including the December crackdown on the Tren de Aragua network. By gradually moving toward treating the state apparatus and its criminal affiliates as a singular terrorist entity, the Treasury Department is trying to isolate Venezuela from the legitimate global economy.

Cut Off the Maduro Machine

As Washington tightens the noose, the true measure of success on the economic warfare front will be a reduction in exports to China. Beijing currently funds the Maduro regime’s oppression machine by purchasing oil at a discounted price. The U.S. Navy can confiscate tankers that carry Venezuelan oil to China and the United States can sell the oil. With the legal framework of the FTO designation and with the physical assets of Operation Southern Spear now in place, the United States possesses both the means and the motive to interdict this illicit trade.

Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from the author and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Saeed on X @SGhasseminejad. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on foreign policy and national security.