Iraq’s Election Is Over, But the Real Winner Has Yet To Be Determined

The voting is done in Iraq, but that doesn’t mean there will be a new government anytime soon. The preliminary results of the November 11 election didn’t contain shocking conclusions, but neither did they yield a clear victor. Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Party had a strong performance, earning over 1.3 million votes, or about 11 percent of the total. This was the most of any party, but not nearly enough to rule on its own.

Only once the final election results are released and ratified — which took more than two months in 2021 — will the official seat allotment be confirmed. However, political leaders begin power-sharing negotiations in a multi-step government formation process. The challenge ahead of them will be to form a coalition without sacrificing key segments of the government or economy to Iran, thereby putting the country in the crosshairs of the Trump administration.

Preliminary Election Results Released

Shiite parties likely secured about 187 seats in the Council of Representatives, a comfortable margin above the 165 required for a majority, despite the absence of the faction led by prominent politician and cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who boycotted this election to protest corruption. Within the faction, Sudani’s party was followed by the parties of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, U.S.-designated terrorist Qais Khazali, and Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Ameri. All three are closely aligned with Iran.

Within the Sunni segment, former Speaker Mohammad al-Halbousi’s Progress Party had a strong showing and is likely to receive about 28 seats in the council. On the Kurdish side, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), with about 1 million votes, decisively defeated its rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which received roughly half of that electoral support. Sunnis and Kurds typically receive the speakership of the council and presidency, respectively. The prime minister’s office has executive power.

Forming a Government May Be Difficult

Despite the strong numbers for Shiite parties, the Shiite coalition that led the last government, the Coordination Framework (CF), is currently fractured. CF officials are reportedly considering an electoral alliance without the prime minister’s party. Sudani hopes for a second term, but other members of the CF are concerned that would enable him to consolidate power. Many have also disagreed with his balancing approach to competition between Tehran and Washington.

To add to the Shiite faction’s troubles, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said the Trump administration told Iraqi officials that six Tehran-backed militias, likely the six that Washington designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), cannot be party to the new government. Khazali’s political party, separate from his militia, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, in name only, should be under this prohibition. If Washington sticks to this requirement, Shiites, forced to expel some factions, may struggle to form a government without Sudani.

Political negotiations will not only cover the position of prime minister, but also the other key ministries and portfolios in the government. Iran-backed politicians have sought important positions in past governments to increase their influence and access Iraq’s resources to enrich themselves, their militias, and the Islamic Republic.

Iran’s Interests Must Not Be Advanced in Government Formation Negotiations

The United States will have to present a credible prospect of consequences to ensure Tehran’s proxies have no place in Iraq’s government. The Trump administration will have little chance of disarming the militias otherwise.

Washington should also convey to officials in Baghdad that negotiations should not include financial or economic benefits to the Islamic Republic or its partners as “compensation” for abiding by the American prohibition on militia participation in government. Sudani’s selection as prime minister in 2022 was due, in part, to his willingness to establish a company for Iran-backed militias to receive government contracts across a range of industries. The U.S. Treasury has since sanctioned this company, but the United States should use its influence to ensure negotiations don’t lead to more economic agreements.

Bridget Toomey is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Bridget and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Bridget on X @BridgetKToomey. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.