Russian PM’s Visit to China Highlights Need for Firm U.S. Sanctions Enforcement

Beijing and Moscow have made a “strategic choice” to advance their partnership despite the “turbulent external environment,” Chinese leader Xi Jinping declared as he hosted Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin last week. The visit underscored the deepening ties between Russia and China as Moscow’s full-scale war in Ukraine approaches its fourth year. It also highlights the challenge China will likely pose to the Trump administration’s newfound efforts to squeeze Russian oil export revenue.

Meetings in Hangzhou, Beijing

Mishustin made the two-day visit as part of the 30th annual meeting between the Russian and Chinese heads of government. On November 3, Premier Li Qiang, the second-ranking official in the Chinese Politburo’s Standing Committee, received the Russian delegation in the city of Hangzhou. The next day, the Russians met with Xi and other senior officials in Beijing. Mishustin’s trip follows visits by Xi and President Vladimir Putin to each other’s countries earlier this year.

During his meeting with Mishustin, Li averred that Beijing is ready to “deepen cooperation across all areas in order to protect our mutual development and security interests more effectively.” The Russian prime minister similarly emphasized that Russia and China have deepened their ties “despite all the turbulence in global politics and the world economy.” The two countries are pursuing “major new projects” concerning energy and outer space and are cooperating in the aviation and automotive industries and the Arctic, Mishustin added, noting that bilateral trade has ditched the dollar and euro in favor of the renminbi.

The two sides issued a joint communiqué pledging to deepen cooperation in a wide array of areas, from energy and finance to science and technology. They also signed various documents related to cooperation on trade, investment, media, and other areas. These included a roadmap for collaboration related to their respective global satellite navigation systems over the next five years. Their transport ministers also signed a memorandum of understanding on the training of personnel to work on ships in polar waters.

Countering Russian-Chinese Sanctions Evasion

In the communiqué, Beijing and Moscow vowed to “make every necessary effort to carry out mutual assistance and cooperation in opposing unilateral coercive measures,” referring to Western sanctions. Mishustin’s visit came shortly after the Trump administration imposed sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest oil companies, as Moscow refused to drop maximalist demands that have stalled talks to end the war in Ukraine.

China will likely be the greatest compliance challenge for the new oil sanctions. The new sanctions, which are set to take effect on November 21, have prompted some Chinese refiners to suspend imports of Russian oil. But the Russians and some of their customers will no doubt seek to develop workarounds. Despite earlier U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project, China began taking shipments in August. The Chinese have also supplied Russia with machinery, microchips, and other key goods for its war effort in defiance of Western sanctions. The Trump administration has yet to sanction any Chinese individual or entity involved in circumventing sanctions on Russia.

Stringent Enforcement Is Key

Forcing China to abandon Russian oil and gas altogether is probably impossible. But if firms in China and elsewhere conclude that the Trump administration is not serious about enforcing sanctions, the scale and scope of evasion may continue to rise. The Treasury Department should look to set the tone by making an example out of violators — with a particularly close eye on China.

This should include sanctioning China’s Beihai terminal, which is responsible for receiving supplies from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project. The United States should also consider designating Chinese entities that continue doing business with Rosneft or Lukoil after the November 21 deadline.

Keti Korkiya is a research analyst with the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where John Hardie is deputy director. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow John on X @JohnH105. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.