Erhurman’s election a step towards peace, but beware of Ankara’s appetite

The election of the new Turkish-Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman in the recent presidential election is a blow to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambitions on the island, but his cadre is far from accepting defeat. Statements buzzing through the highest echelons of the Turkish government range from stifled disappointment to calls for annexation.

The self-declared “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” – an occupation zone which only Turkey recognizes as a state – held its election on October 19. Ending the day with nearly two thirds of the popular vote, opposition nominee Tufan Erhurman unseated the incumbent, pro-Erdogan Ersin Tatar.

A liberal, pro-reunification leader like Erhurman has the potential to revive the Cyprus peace process. But any push for peace must inevitably face an uphill battle against the Turkish government’s heavy hand in the occupation.

But perhaps there is more to these results than meets the eye: Perhaps Erdogan favored this result and wanted Erhurman’s victory?

Opposition victory is a blow to Erdogan’s ambitions

Erhurman is a member of the Republican Turkish Party (CTP), the main opposition party in the Turkish north, which possesses kinship with Turkey’s liberal Republican People’s Party (CHP). The CTP runs on a pro-federation platform, seeking reunification with the Republic of Cyprus as two regional governments under one state.

Accordingly, the CTP is far more open to negotiations and the peace process than the National Unity Party (UBP). By contrast, Tatar and the UBP support the Turkish north’s assertion of statehood at the expense of Cypriot sovereignty.

What’s particularly important about Erhurman’s victory is the message it conveys about local public opinion. With 63% of the popular vote, Erhurman defeated Tatar by nearly 30 points. Erhurman ran on a platform not only of restarting negotiations but also reinforcing secularism in the face of Tatar’s pro-Erdogan Islamist bent. Major protests broke out in April and May after Tatar, at Ankara’s behest, legalized the wearing of headscarves in schools. The results may also indicate that Erdogan may be poised to re-engage unification talks on the island, something he has not credibly attempted since the failure of the UN-backed Annan plan brokered in 2004.

Rumors are circling through Turkey’s political establishment suggesting that Erdogan actually favored Erhurman’s victory above Tatar’s, causing a serious rift between Erdogan and his governing coalition partner, Devlet Bahceli.

Erdogan previously supported Tatar’s election in 2020, but his vocal enthusiasm for Tatar was far more muted in 2025. Could it be that Erdogan is seriously interested in rekindling the unification process in Cyprus? Only time will tell; however, without Erdogan’s active support, the unification process cannot proceed. The one reason Erdogan would back reunification talks would be to kick-start Turkey’s stalled EU accession dream – a process which German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently said he fully supported during his visit to Ankara.

Without resolving the Cyprus question, Ankara’s EU aspirations are little more than a pipe dream. All member-states would have to accept Turkey’s bid, and for that to happen, Ankara must accept the existence of all EU members, which it presently does not!

Locals have expressed through the election a desire to return to peace talks, secular liberalism, and a growing discontent with Turkey’s influence. On the other side of the buffer zone, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides congratulated Erhurman and voiced his desire to meet “as soon as possible” and resume peace negotiations.

Depending on what Erdogan wants, this may or may not be bad news. If he had been interested in propping up the status quo, he could certainly have put his thumb on the electoral scales and ensured a Tatar victory. On the other hand, maybe Erdogan wrongly underestimated Erhurman’s chances.

Ankara is poised to obstruct peace efforts on the island

One need not search extensively through Turkish state media to find a range of negative reactions from Erdogan’s government. Perhaps the most diplomatic of the regime’s remarks came from the likes of the president himself, whose lukewarm, boilerplate congratulations may be masking deeper sentiments.

Others in Erdogan’s inner circle were less “cordial,” so to speak. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan refrained from issuing any congratulatory message, but was keen to express on election day his view that only a “two-state solution” (that is, no peace process) is possible for Cyprus.

Far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli voiced his outrage for all to hear, decrying the “low-turnout” election as invalid. What’s more, he urged the “parliament” in the occupied Turkish north to immediately vote to join the Turkish state – a fancy way to say Turkish annexation of one third of Cyprus. If Erdogan decides to proceed with reunification in a serious manner, it is clear his coalition with Bahceli is likely to be jeopardized.

The government in Ankara is far more powerful than its client in northern Cyprus, and from these reactions alone it is not hard to imagine the difficulties Erhurman will face in pushing for peace. But it does not stop there – Erdogan’s administration has abundant means and intentions to interfere in politics in the north in a scenario where Erdogan intends to preserve the status quo and Erhurman were to proceed alone with reunification talks.

For one, Turkey maintains at least 35,000 soldiers, equivalent to almost 10 percent of the area’s population – making it one of the most militarized places on Earth. This massive force presence translates into massive leverage for Ankara over local politics.

For another, Erdogan and his underlings effectively dominate northern Cypriot affairs, making it a structural problem. Opposition has chafed under Erdogan’s interference, most recently the president’s deployment of the Islamist Yunus Emre Institute to organize events during election season and public urgings that Tatar must win.

Ankara’s yoke creates a difficult environment for Erhurman to navigate when it comes to seeking peace with the Republic of Cyprus. Bahceli’s call for annexation aside, the “parliament” is still UBP-dominated and recently voted in favor of the “two-state solution.” And Erhurman has also told pro-Erdogan media that he will not pursue any foreign policy decisions without prior consultation with Turkey – likely to dispel rumors of him bearing anti-Ankara sentiments.

Cypriot reunification is a good deal

US President Donald Trump, a dealmaker at heart, should consider the current situation in Cyprus with interest. For the first time since talks broke down in 2017, the occupied north is looking for a peace deal. 

The United States would be wise to step in at the forefront of peace talks. While UN auspices are likely to set the stage for talks between the Cypriot parties, Washington should remember the problems that led to the Annan plan’s failure in 2004. Cyprus needs a security guarantee, not an arms ban – supplying Nicosia with defense technologies through the US-Israeli-Cypriot-Greek partnership (the “3+1”) is a must. Likewise, President Trump should push for a clearly defined sunset on all Turkish forces stationed in the north. The island’s 700,000+ Greek Cypriots will have little desire to accept a peace plan without terms for a total Turkish withdrawal, nor should they.

And the president isn’t afraid to play hardball – in 2020, Erdogan earned his country a CAATSA sanctions designation for buying S-400 missile systems from Russia. Turkey needs access to US technology for its own defense sector, evidenced in Ankara’s trouble procuring General Electric engines for its upcoming fifth-generation fighter jet, the Kaan.

The Republic of Cyprus is a critical ally in the Eastern Mediterranean, fulfilling a vital role in counterterrorism, maritime policing, and energy security. Cypriot reunification under one banner and one state, with security and democracy for all its citizens, is an opportunity Washington would be remiss to pass up.

Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow and director of the Turkey program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington DC, where William Doran is an intern.