Israeli-Lebanon Ceasefire Shows Cracks as Aoun Calls on Lebanese Army To Confront IDF

Latest Developments

Response to IDF Operation Against Hezbollah: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun instructed the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to “confront” IDF troops when they cross the border into Lebanon to carry out operations. Aoun made the comment following an overnight raid by the IDF in the border town of Blida. The IDF said that the raid was conducted to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure. IDF troops reportedly opened fire on a municipal building after identifying “an immediate threat,” killing a worker identified as Ibrahim Salameh, who was sleeping in the building. The IDF stated that the incident is under review.
Tensions With Israel Rise as Lebanon Is Slow to Disarm Hezbollah: Israel has conducted frequent airstrikes and occasional commando raids in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley to prevent Hezbollah from rearming and rebuilding its infrastructure, actions that violate the ceasefire agreed to in November 2024. In August, Aoun’s government endorsed a plan to disarm Hezbollah nationwide, consolidating all arms in the country under the LAF. So far, the LAF has made little progress in disarming Hezbollah, leading to Israeli media reporting that Israeli officials are considering intensifying combat operations in Lebanon “in light of Hezbollah’s efforts to strengthen its presence” and “trying, and even succeeding, in restoring its offensive and defensive capabilities.”
U.S.-Lebanon Joint Military Exercises: U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) announced the conclusion of the weeklong joint maritime exercise “Resolute Union 26” with the Lebanese Armed Forces-Navy (LAF-N) on October 30. The exercises focused on “maritime security operations, including visit, board, search, and seizure, as well as explosive ordnance disposal and diving.” The United States has been the LAF’s primary partner, providing funding to pay salaries and equipment in an effort to bolster its strength against Hezbollah. On October 29, U.S. Deputy Envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus urged Beirut to speed up the disarmament of Hezbollah to meet its goal of completing the process by the end of the year.

FDD Expert Response

“Aoun’s statement is largely symbolic but important. He knows the LAF cannot confront the IDF in any meaningful way. But he’s signaling to the Lebanese that the LAF and the Lebanese state are their sole defenders. However, in so doing, he’s giving in to Hezbollah’s post-ceasefire demand that the Lebanese government confront Israel. Even without armed action against Israel, if Aoun proceeds without first disarming Hezbollah — the sole reason for Israel’s operations and presence in Lebanon — by force, if necessary, he will have officially aligned Lebanon with Hezbollah as a direct and active adversary of Israel, granting the group a significant political victory.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow

“Lebanon signed on to the Cessation of Hostilities, which stipulates disarming Hezbollah, but has not upheld its commitment, forcing Israel to do Beirut’s job. When President Aoun says that his army will counter any Israeli incursion against Hezbollah, he is putting the two states on a collision course.” — Hussain Abdul-Hussain, Research Fellow