Polish Fighter Jets Intercept Russian Spy Plane Over Baltic Sea

Latest Developments

• Plane Flew Without Flight Plan or Transponder: Polish MiG-29 fighter jets intercepted a Russian Il-20 spy plane over the Baltic Sea on October 28 and escorted it out of the area. Poland’s Operational Command of the Armed Forces reported that the plane did not violate Polish airspace but was flying without a flight plan and with its transponder switched off. The air forces of NATO member states have been on high alert after repeated Russian airspace violations this year, with the most significant violation coming on September 9-10, when NATO fighters shot down Russian drones that entered Polish airspace.
• NATO Reacts to Multiple Incidents: British fighter jets intercepted a Russian Il-20 spy plane over the Baltic Sea in April and another Il-20 that violated Polish airspace in June. In September, German and Swedish planes intercepted an Il-20 over the Baltic. On September 19, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets invaded Estonian airspace without permission for more than 10 minutes before being intercepted and escorted away by jets from three NATO member states. At Estonia’s request, NATO met for consultation under Article 4, condemning Russia’s actions and stating that “NATO and [its] allies will employ, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions.”
• Putin Doubling Down on War: A new U.S. intelligence assessment presented to Congress reportedly warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is “more determined than ever” to continue the war in Ukraine and that there was no sign that Russia was ready to compromise to reach a ceasefire. According to a senior U.S. official and a senior congressional official cited by NBC News, Putin is determined to expand Russia’s territorial gains to justify the significant loss of Russian troops and the toll the war has taken on Russia’s economy. President Donald Trump’s frustration with Putin’s unwillingness to negotiate prompted the White House to impose sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, on October 22.

FDD Expert Response

“Russia continues to test NATO’s readiness and responses. While less provocative than the Estonian airspace violation, this latest spy plane flyby highlights a larger problem: Putin is determined to probe and challenge the United States, our allies, and partners at every opportunity, including on the battlefields of Ukraine.” — Peter Doran, Adjunct Senior Fellow

“We should not be surprised that Putin is on the front foot, probing and testing NATO because the Pentagon keeps taking steps that the Kremlin can be expected to interpret as a reduced U.S. commitment to deterrence in Eastern Europe. The Ford Carrier Strike Group has departed the Mediterranean early, and the Pentagon is reducing the U.S. military posture in Romania. These steps are sending exactly the wrong signal to Putin and undermining President Trump’s leverage to achieve a peace in Ukraine consistent with American interests.” — Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center of Military and Political Power

“The Trump administration’s new oil sanctions have the potential to squeeze Russia’s war economy. But Moscow will surely seek to devise workarounds. To achieve maximal effect, stringent U.S. monitoring and enforcement will be required. The Treasury Department should waste no time in setting the tone with enforcement packages targeting violators.” — John Hardie, Russia Program Deputy Director

FDD Background and Analysis

“Russia announces plan to muster reservists to combat Ukrainian drones,” by John Hardie

“The Effectiveness of Trump’s New Russia Oil Sanctions Depends on Stringent Enforcement,” by Max Meizlish

“U.S. and EU Include Key Oil Companies in New Sanctions Targeting Russia,” FDD Flash Brief

“‘Russia Does Not Feel Enough Pressure’: Ukraine Bombarded Over 2 Deadly Nights as Trump Sours on Meeting With Putin,” FDD Flash Brief