IAEA Chief Assesses Iran’s Enriched Uranium Stockpile Remains Inside Sites Destroyed by Israel and U.S.

Latest Developments

• Enriched Uranium Entombed at Destroyed Sites: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Grossi revealed his agency’s assessment that most of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains entombed at sites destroyed during Israeli and U.S. strikes in June. Grossi estimated that more than 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium remain in the nuclear facilities in Isfahan and Fordow, and some in Natanz. He added that the IAEA would need Iran’s “full cooperation” to access the “massively damaged” nuclear facilities.
• Satellite Images Show Activity at Isfahan Tunnels Site: A new analysis of satellite imagery of Iran’s Isfahan Tunnel Complex near the Isfahan Nuclear Technology and Research Center by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security shows ongoing activity at two of three demolished entrances to the complex, where Iran stored most of its 60 percent enriched uranium. The photos, taken between late September and early October, show that rubble at all but one of the entrances had been cleared after they were damaged during the June airstrikes. “However, the visible activity does not indicate a dash to remove possible centrifuge or enriched uranium stocks inside the tunnel complex,” the report stated. “Rather, it points more towards preparing controlled and secure access to two of the three tunnel entrances and hardening the entrances and utilities against future strikes.”
• E3 Warns of Penalties for Noncompliance: France, the United Kingdom, and Germany — collectively known as the E3 — have reportedly warned that they may refer Iran’s file to the UN Security Council if the regime does not restore agency inspections at its nuclear sites, as required by signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran suspended its cooperation with the IAEA, and nuclear inspectors have not visited its facilities since before the June airstrikes, except to oversee refueling of the Russian-built Bushehr reactor.

FDD Expert Response

“Grossi’s comments reaffirm the publicly reported findings of the United States and Israel: Iran’s highly enriched uranium stocks likely remain buried in the destroyed sites. As such, should it attempt to recover and relocate the stocks, Tehran would be gambling on whether those two countries will militarily act to stop the regime. Moreover, Israel’s strikes prior to the U.S. bombing dealt major blows to Iran’s ability to weaponize the fuel and construct nuclear weapons anytime soon.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

“The regime in Tehran views its uranium stockpile as leverage for future negotiations, especially after Iranian officials’ recent remarks hinting at weaponization. With such threats now increasingly explicit, the Islamic Republic should not assume it can move or conceal its stockpile without consequence.” — Janatan Sayeh, Research Analyst

FDD Background and Analysis

“Analysis: Iran threatens nuclear weaponization ambitions,” by Janatan Sayeh

“5 Ways to Curb Iran’s Oil Exports to China,” by Aidin Panahi and Saeed Ghasseminejad

“EU Reimposes Sanctions on Tehran as Iranian Officials Threaten Consequences,” FDD Flash Brief

“UN Security Council Rejects Late Effort to Extend Iran Sanctions ‘Snapback’ Deadline,” FDD Flash Brief