Ceasefire Gives Breathing Room to Syrian Government and Kurdish-Led Forces

A ceasefire between the government in Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), agreed to on October 7, pulls Syria back from the brink of bloodshed. Tensions, already high, rose the day before when Syrian Army troops clashed with the SDF in Kurdish enclaves in Aleppo. Government forces discovered a tunnel that they claimed was used to smuggle weapons.

Looking for a more permanent solution, U.S. envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack and the head of U.S. Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, met with Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the SDF, on October 6. Barrack, Abdi, and others also held a meeting with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani to discuss “practical mechanisms for implementing the March 10 agreement.” The March deal aimed to integrate the SDF-governed areas and military forces into national bodies.  

Stalled Implementation of the March Deal

Sharaa has rejected all SDF demands for decentralization, stressing that northeast Syria must be under the control of the central government in Damascus. The president also insists that SDF troops must be brought into a unified Syrian army as individuals, not as a separate military bloc. Sharaa has also failed to address the SDF’s core security concerns, including the threat from Turkey. Ankara views the SDF as an extension of the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a U.S.-designated terror group which has waged an insurgency against Ankara for decades. The Kurdish group also has concerns about the Syrian Army itself in the wake of its massacres of the Alawite and Druze minorities.

Turkey Has Given the SDF Until the End of December To Integrate or Face Military Action

Despite the positive discussions between the Syrian government and the SDF, Turkey remains a critical actor in this conflict. Earlier, the Turkish National Defense Ministry announced it had begun efforts to train the Syrian Army on September 11, following defense agreements signed between Ankara and Damascus on August 13. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signaled that Turkey will not allow Syria’s “fragmentation” if a deal to integrate the SDF into the Syrian military collapses. Sharaa had previously warned that “if integration is not achieved by December, Turkey may take military action.”

Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) factions have been integrated into the new Syrian army as separate units, even though Sharaa refuses to allow SDF units to do the same. Among the SNA factions are the Hamzat and the Sultan Suleiman Shah Brigade (Amshat), both led by individuals under U.S. sanctions, Sayf Boulad and Abu Amsha. Turkey will use these factions, to which it continues to fund and provide logistical support, should Turkey opt for a military operation against the SDF.

Stability in Syria Requires Increased U.S. Mediation

The U.S.-brokered SDF-Syrian government meeting is a testament to the pivotal role that the United States is playing to avert conflict that would further fracture Syria and could create a security gap in the northeast of the country that would be exploited by the Islamic State. The U.S. should continue fostering dialogue between the two parties and try to reach an implementation roadmap for the March agreement before the end of the year.

The U.S. should focus on pressuring Ankara into severing its ties with Hamzat and Amshat and ending financial support for them. Moreover, Washington should make clear to Ankara that the United States adamantly opposes Turkish military action against the SDF, which would only damage Syria’s already questionable stability.

Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.