China Set To Fill Gap From Expiration of Key U.S.-Africa Trade Program

Africa is bracing for crushing new tariffs on goods exported to the United States. On September 30, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired, forcing an end to the duty-free access to U.S. markets that eligible sub-Saharan African countries have enjoyed since 2000. Starting now, trade with sub-Saharan Africa reverts to the default “Most-Favored-Nation” (MFN) schedule — a friendly-sounding program which is decidedly unfavorable in comparison with AGOA.

While policymakers anticipate that AGOA’s lapse will decrease African exports to the U.S., they fail to understand the full strategic impact. Under the MFN schedule, default tariffs, which vary across products, will be added to President Donald Trump’s country-specific “liberation day” tariff rates. In some cases, items that previously entered the United States duty-free will face tariffs as high as 48 percent. Without U.S. markets, Africa will become further dependent on Beijing for export markets, investment, and eventually security — even long-time U.S. allies.    

From Economic Setback to Security Risk

The expiration of AGOA is not just an economic issue. It weakens U.S. national security by ceding influence in Africa to China. Commercial ties often form the backbone of security partnerships. As U.S. trade and investment dry up, African states will turn to Beijing, which blends political training programs with economic incentives and security cooperation.

Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Eswatini, and Mauritius have built entire export hubs around AGOA trade preferences. Without AGOA, these governments will scramble to save jobs and investment, and China is ready with opaque financing to profit from the chaos. For Washington, this means fewer reliable allies in a region that is critical to counterterrorism, maritime security, and supply-chain resilience.

American Exceptionalism in Africa

As post-AGOA trade networks emerge, the United States will become the only major economic bloc without a trade or investment agreement in sub-Saharan Africa. The European Union (EU) keeps African access open through Economic Partnership Agreements. China, which is already Africa’s biggest trading partner, has expanded duty-free treatment for many African exports and an extensive network of agreements and partnerships. Washington’s retreat sends the wrong signal to a continent where commercial ties shape security ties.

This is especially true for critical minerals. Africa is rich in the many critical minerals needed for U.S. defense and other high-tech applications. While critical minerals may retain duty-free access, the absence of broader commercial agreements undermines U.S. credibility. Memories of colonialism and the Cold War are at the center of African politics. If we negotiate for critical minerals alone, we risk being painted as extractive colonialists rather than economic partners. Dismantling AGOA — after gutting the United States Agency for International Development — further erodes trust when it matters most.  

Remember Africa, Rethink U.S. African Economic Ties

Congress should act to protect U.S. economic and security relationships while ensuring favorable trade treatment aligns with U.S. security objectives. South Africa, for example, has hosted joint military exercises with both Russia and China despite receiving trade preferences under AGOA. Tightened eligibility requirements for favorable trade engagement would allow Washington to pressure diplomatic “fence-sitters” while rewarding key partners, like Kenya, a major non-NATO U.S. ally and a key counterterrorism partner.

The United States needs to modernize its economic relationship with Africa.  At a minimum, this means advancing bilateral trade negotiations with key African allies to ensure long-term market access and investment stability. Presidential initiatives, such as Prosper Africa, have historically helped to coordinate trade, investment, and development policy across U.S. government agencies. America can start negotiations around critical minerals, but the long-term goal must be a comprehensive economic relationship. Without it, Africa’s future will be written in Chinese.  

Daniel Swift is a senior research analyst for economics, finance, and trade for the Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP) at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Angela Howard is a research analyst. Daniel is a retired U.S. diplomat and was most recently the acting coordinator for Prosper Africa — a presidential-level national security initiative to increase two-way trade and investment between the United States and Africa. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Angela on X @angela__howard. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.