‘He’s Not Messing Around’: Trump Signals NATO Could Shoot Down Russian Aircraft as Aerial Incursions Continue

Latest Developments

• ‘Yes, I Do’: President Donald Trump answered in the affirmative when asked whether he supports NATO shooting down Russian aircraft that fly into the airspace of the alliance’s members. “Yes, I do,” Trump said during a September 23 meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, later adding that whether or not the United States would directly support a NATO country that takes such an action would depend “on the circumstances.” Separately, newly appointed U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz warned that Russian President Vladimir “should take the message from the president [seriously]. He’s not messing around.”
• NATO Is Prepared: Trump’s comments were backed by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who stated that he agreed with the U.S. leader, adding that NATO forces are trained to assess whether an incursion poses an “immediate threat” based on available intelligence in order to act “quickly and decisively.” On September 12, Rutte announced the launch of Operation Eastern Sentry to bolster NATO air defenses along its eastern flank after several Russian drones breached NATO airspace over Poland and later Romania, forcing NATO jets to scramble. NATO scrambled aircraft again on September 19 in response to three armed Russian MiG-31 fighter jets that violated Estonian airspace. On September 25, Denmark briefly closed several airports after spotting unidentified drones. While authorities could not immediately link the activity to Russia, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen stated that his country was the target of a “systematic operation” by a “professional actor.”
• Trump Believes Ukraine Can Win: Soon after meeting Zelenskyy at the General Assembly, Trump posted on Truth Social that he believed Ukraine “is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form” with the backing of Europe. He also said that Russia was a “paper tiger” that had been “fighting aimlessly.” After months of attempted negotiations with the Kremlin, Trump has expressed frustration over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions to stall his efforts toward negotiating a ceasefire. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded, “Russia is in no way a tiger. Still, Russia is more compared with a bear. There are no paper bears.”

FDD Expert Response

“Let’s hope that President Trump maintains this well-earned disappointment with Russian President Vladimir Putin and that this time it leads to specific actions. Trump should allow Europe and Ukraine to buy whatever weapons they need — offensive or defensive — from the U.S. defense-industrial base and allow these weapons to be used without former President Joe Biden’s restrictive limitations. He should also ensure that mid-level bureaucrats at the Defense Department don’t divert Ukrainian weapons purchased between 2022 and 2024 away from Ukraine. Trump should also place sanctions or tariffs on all purchasers of Russian shadow fleet fossil fuels, including China.” — RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow and Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology

“Putin clearly believes he can continue his war of conquest in Ukraine and violations of NATO airspace without consequences. It is likely not a coincidence that the successive violations of Polish, Romanian, and Estonian airspace that occurred in less than two weeks came after Pentagon officials reportedly notified European allies that the United States would cut key security assistance funding for deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank with Russia. President Trump is right to be frustrated and might want to ask some tough questions of his staff, some of whom may not understand ‘peace through strength’ and don’t appear to realize that the quickest way to invite additional Russian aggression is for Washington to signal retreat and weakness.” — Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center of Military and Political Power

“President Trump has made it clear that NATO allies must be ready to defend their airspace with force. He has unequivocally stated that any Russian aircraft violating allied borders should be shot down. This is a critical step in a strategy that affirms that ‘Ukraine can win’ and an unmistakable declaration that allies should not be afraid to defend themselves.” — Peter Doran, Adjunct Senior Fellow

FDD Background and Analysis

“How The Kremlin Negotiates,” by Iullia Osmolovska, Donald Jensen, and Dr. Graeme P. Herd

“‘Unprecedented and Brazen’: Russian Fighter Jets Cross Into NATO Member Estonia’s Airspace,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iranian Assistance Enables Russian Drone Incursions Into Poland and Romania,” by Ryan Brobst, Cameron McMillan, and Bradley Bowman

“U.S. Approves First Shipment of Weapons to Ukraine Under New Mechanism in Concert With Allies,” FDD Flash Brief

“Russia’s escalation demands forceful response,” by Peter Doran and John Hardie