British and French Recognition of Palestine Will Reward Terrorism, Endanger European Security

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron are reportedly poised to recognize Palestine as a state within the coming days. If they do so, they will regrettably be rewarding terrorism and making Middle East peace less likely. They will also be endangering European security by gifting Russia a precedent for intensifying its support of nation-splintering independence movements in Scotland, Corsica, Catalonia, and elsewhere.

Palestine meets fewer of the international legal criteria for statehood than do those and other separation-seeking European regions. The legal criteria, set forth in the Montevideo Convention, reflect customary international law and thus are binding on all states. The Montevideo criteria require a) a permanent population; b) a defined territory; c) a government with effective control over that population and territory; and d) a capacity to enter into relations with other states. 

The European Council (EC) added several additional non-binding criteria in its 1991 guidelines for recognizing new states in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. These include potential states providing their citizens “the rule of law, democracy, and human rights.”

The Palestinian Authority (PA), the entity Macron and Starmer plan to recognize, is far from qualifying for statehood according to the Montevideo criteria. It has had no control over the Gazan part of its territory since 2007, when Hamas seized power there in a bloody coup. Over 40 percent of the proposed Palestinian state’s population resides in Gaza. The PA thus lacks the capacity to ensure Palestine’s population abides by any agreements the PA makes with other states.

As for the EC criteria, PA President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in the twentieth year of the single four-year term to which he was elected in 2005 (he has cancelled all presidential elections since then). In addition, Freedom House, the respected human rights watchdog, has for years scored both the PA and the Hamas regimes worse for political rights and civil liberties than nearly every other government on the planet.

Unlike Palestine, independence-minded Scotland, Corsica (an island currently part of France), and Catalonia (currently a region of Spain) arguably meet the Montevideo criteria of having governments with effective control over the full population residing in a clearly defined territory. Additionally, unlike Palestine, they meet the EC’s rule of law, democracy, and human rights criteria. In addition, Scotland, Corsica, and Catalonia — unlike Palestine — each has a historical claim to sovereignty as previously independent states.

If Palestine now qualifies as an independent state, then Scotland, Corsica, and Catalonia surely qualify too.  As do numerous other separation-minded parts of Europe, such as Flanders and the Basque region. 

Eroding the criteria for independence is a gift to Russia, which has already attempted to assist the independence movements of Scotland (reportedly meddling in the 2014 referendum) and Catalonia (in 2017, reportedly offering $500 billion and 10,000 armed soldiers to help Catalonia leave Spain). Those Russian efforts have thus far paled in comparison with Moscow’s aggressive leveraging of separatist groups to splinter Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.

And if Palestine is recognized as an independent state in the context of Hamas’ murderous October 7, 2023, attack against Israel, what lessons will other separatist regions draw? As it happens, the National Liberation Front of Corsica (NLFC) — which demands the island’s independence from France — committed terrorist bombings on October 8 and 9, 2023, the two days after Hamas’ October 7 attack against Israel. 

The NLFC bombings did not cause any casualties, unlike the Hamas terrorists of October 7, who slaughtered some 1,200 civilians, took more than 250 hostages, and brutally raped numerous women. If the NLFC had instead murdered hundreds of French citizens, would the UK and France now be recognizing Corsica as an independent state?

Starmer and Macron claim their planned recognitions will contribute to peace.  But rather than advance peace, recognition would undermine the long-established “land for peace” framework for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That framework, set forth in UN Security Council Resolution 242 and the Oslo Accords, provides that Palestinian statehood can only come as part of a negotiated solution to the conflict, in which Israel receives peace in return.

Hamas is emboldened to continue holding hostages and obstructing a ceasefire, and the PA has no incentive to take concrete steps towards peace, when European leaders like Starmer and Macron recognize Palestinian statehood without Israel receiving peace in return. 

British and French recognition of Palestine as a state should be put on hold until the Palestinian leadership takes the concrete steps necessary to ensure that a Palestinian state both meets the traditional international legal criteria for statehood and fulfills the Palestinian side of the “land for peace” legal framework.

Prior to recognition, the hostages must be released and Hamas must be disarmed, either with Hamas’ acquiescence or without it. Also prior to recognition, the PA must gain control of Gaza, demilitarize the Palestinian territories, fundamentally reform its governance, and hold general elections without Hamas. Recognition must wait until Palestinian leaders demonstrate they are both determined and able to implement an agreement that provides both their people and Israel with lasting peace and security. 

It is both entirely counterproductive to peace and contravenes international law to recognize a Palestinian state with 40 percent of its population ruled by Hamas, whose charter defines its goal as Israel’s annihilation, who started this war with its brutal October 7 attack, and who continues that war by refusing compromise, holding hostages, targeting Israeli civilians, and driving up Palestinian civilian casualties by using them as human shields.

If peace is to be achieved, recognition of Palestinian statehood must be the end result of a lasting peace agreement negotiated between the parties, not a reward for terrorism.

Orde F. Kittrie is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a law professor at Arizona State University. He previously served for over a decade in legal and policy positions at the U.S. State Department. For more analysis from Orde and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Orde on X @ordefk. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.