What Lebanon’s Hezbollah Disarmament Campaign Means for Gaza

Excerpt

In late August, the Lebanese Armed Forces began collecting weapons from Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. The initiative came in the wake of an agreement between Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas and newly elected Lebanese president Joseph Aoun. The agreement enables the Lebanese army to collect weapons from armed groups and secure all weapons in Lebanon in the state’s possession. Lebanon’s success in collecting arms could help pave the way for wider regional stability. It could also provide a lesson for how the disarmament of Hamas could take place in Gaza.

Like all states, Lebanon’s government seeks a monopoly on the legitimate use of force within its territory. The real goal in Lebanon is not just to collect arms from Palestinian armed groups; rather, it is to disarm the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah. The Palestinian camp disarmament is seen as the low-hanging fruit. Plucking it from the tree will build confidence and expertise in the Lebanese state and make it more adept at hauling in weapons from other, more powerful non-state militants in the future.

Lebanon’s current challenges are a direct result of the country’s civil war, which began in 1975 and continued until 1990. When the war ended, most of the armed militias were supposed to lay down their arms. However, Hezbollah became significantly stronger. It stockpiled more than 150,000 rockets, built kamikaze drones, and used the Lebanon as a base of operations to attack Israel and operate in other countries. Hezbollah was severely weakened in 2024 after several weeks of heavy fighting with Israel. A ceasefire in November 2024 paved the way for the new reality for the country. The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 has also cut off Hezbollah from Iranian arms trafficked through Syria.

These developments have emboldened Lebanon’s government. The Abbas-Aoun agreement is significant because it enables the government to collect arms from Palestinian groups peacefully. The agreement covered groups such as Fatah, which are part of the Palestinian Authority. However, it does not cover Hamas, which has many supporters in Lebanon.

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machines, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is the acting news editor and senior Middle East correspondent and analyst at The Jerusalem Post. Follow him on X: @sfrantzman.