U.S. Must Apply Pressure to Prevent Turkish Military Intervention in Syria

Syria after Bashar al-Assad is a country in chaos, but that does not mean it cannot get worse. One way that could happen would be a direct Turkish military intervention. Unfortunately, that is exactly what Turkey’s foreign minister threatened on July 22 if any group “should take steps aimed at dividing Syria.” Hakan Fidan’s escalatory rhetoric was directed toward the Kurdish community in Syria and at Israel, both of which Ankara has accused of trying to undermine Syria’s unity.

This month’s violence in southern Syria between government forces, Druze militants, and Sunni Arab Bedouins has resulted in the deaths of hundreds in the Suwayda governorate. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) sharply criticized interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa for failing to protect Syria’s minority populations. Further adding to tensions, Israel conducted an aerial campaign that targeted the Syrian Defense Ministry in Damascus, as well as military assets in southern Syria.

Turkey views both the SDF and Israel as seeking to exploit the violence in Suwayda to undermine Sharaa’s control over Syria and divide the country along ethnic and religious lines.

Turkey’s Fears of Federalization in Syria

The bloodshed in Suwayda has heightened Turkey’s fears that the SDF may seek autonomy and continue its calls for federalism in Syria. “We did not consent to the fragmentation of Syria yesterday, and we will certainly not consent to it today or tomorrow,” said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on July 17.

The United States and Turkey gave the SDF a 30-day window to integrate into the Syrian state as part of the March agreement signed by SDF leader Mazloum Abdi and Sharaa. The agreement’s implementation has stalled mainly because of Kurdish concerns over their lack of consultation in Syria’s future and Sharaa’s centralization of power. “We want to participate in drafting the constitution and managing the country,” Ilham Ahmed, the co-president of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANE), said in April. The SDF, which has protected the Kurds since its formation in October 2015, is the military wing of DAANE.

Syria Requests Military Assistance From Turkey

According to the Turkish state-owned Anadolu Agency, “the Syrian government requested official support from Türkiye to strengthen its defense capacity and combat terror groups.”

Turkey has already started supplying the new government with military assets. On July 23, a video surfaced showing the Syrian army receiving a batch of Turkish-made Ejder armored personnel carriers. In addition, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) factions that have integrated into the Syrian armed forces have continued to receive backing from Ankara separately. However, they now operate under the state’s umbrella. Prior to Assad’s fall, the SNA was a loose coalition of jihadist militia groups. It was established and supported by Turkey in 2017 with the intention of toppling the Assad regime.

Turkey had also previously eyed deploying its own troops and military aircraft at an airbase in central Syria, aiming to install advanced air defense systems to counter Israeli operations and to respond to threats from the Islamic State. But Israeli jets struck the proposed airbase in April.

The U.S. Must Apply Pressure to Stop Turkey

Turkey’s threats of military intervention in Syria pose serious challenges to the fragile state. Washington must first discourage Turkey from using escalatory rhetoric against U.S. counterterrorism partners, the SDF, and U.S. ally Israel. Additionally, Washington should make clear to Ankara that it should not deploy its forces or have control over bases in central and southern Syria. America should also pressure Turkey to halt all efforts to reignite conflict with the SDF, which would only lead to more devastation and instability in Syria.

Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow and director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Sinan and Ahmad on X @SinanCiddi and @AhmadA_Sharawi. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on foreign policy and national security.