July 25, 2025 | The National Interest
In the Caucasus, Donald Trump Has an Opportunity
With Azerbaijan defying Russia, the region has the opportunity to clinch a historic peace deal.
July 25, 2025 | The National Interest
In the Caucasus, Donald Trump Has an Opportunity
With Azerbaijan defying Russia, the region has the opportunity to clinch a historic peace deal.
Excerpt
Russia’s declining influence in its own backyard offers President Donald Trump a major opportunity to burnish his peacemaking credentials. Peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been ongoing for years. Both countries might now be coming to a “successful conclusion,” President Trump said on July 15.
By facilitating a final settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the United States could deal a blow to Russia’s influence activities in the South Caucasus, a major corridor for Western energy and trade links.
Since 2020, Azerbaijan has launched two successful military operations to take disputed territories from neighboring Armenia. In September 2023, Baku’s “lightning offensive” recaptured the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
During both rounds of fighting, the Kremlin declined to intervene on Armenia’s behalf despite the presence of a reported 10,000 Russian soldiers in the country and its membership in Russia’s alternative to NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Peter Doran is an adjunct senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy. Dmitriy Shapiro is a research analyst at FDD. For more analysis from Peter, Dmitriy, and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Peter on X @PeterBDoran and Dmitriy @dmitriyshapiro. Follow FDD on X @FDD.