‘We’re Probably Thinking Closer to 2 Years’: Pentagon Provides More Details on Damage Assessment of U.S. Strikes Against Iranian Nuclear Sites

Latest Developments

• Battle Damage Assessment: Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell provided more details on the Pentagon’s battle damage assessment (BDA) on July 2 regarding U.S. strikes against key Iranian nuclear facilities. Parnell stated, “our assessment of the battle damage around Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan” is that “we have degraded their program by one to two years,” later clarifying that he believed “we’re thinking probably closer to two years.” On June 21, U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bombers dropped a combined 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker-busting bombs on the Fordow and Natanz uranium enrichment facilities, and a U.S. Navy submarine struck the Isfahan nuclear site with Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles.  
• IAEA Cautious About Enrichment Capabilities: The Department of Defense provided more details on its assessment the same week Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), warned that Iran could begin enriching uranium within months following the U.S. and Israeli strikes. Grossi cautioned, “Iran has a very vast ambitious program, and part of it may still be there, and if not, there is also the self-evident truth that the knowledge is there.” Grossi is the target of continued threats from the Iranian regime, with the hardline newspaper Kayhan suggesting that he should be tried and executed as an Israeli agent.
• Mossad Chief Weighs In: Mossad chief David Barnea said that Israel inflicted “significant damage” against the Islamic Republic during the IDF’s 12-day campaign, Operation Rising Lion. “We are committed to continuing to act resolutely to prevent a future threat from Iran to Israel and to strive to maximize the strategic opportunities before us,” Barnea stated.

FDD Expert Response             

“Good policy begins with an objective assessment of reality, and here’s the bottom line: Iran’s nuclear program was seriously degraded by American and Israeli military strikes but not ‘obliterated.’ Moreover, I am aware of no evidence to support the claim that Operation Midnight Hammer resulted in the ‘total obliteration of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.’ The Iranian nuclear program is down but not out. This American military strike may become little more than a footnote in military history rather than a grand strategic victory for Trump if he fails to bring the same leadership and focus to negotiations that he did to the military strikes.” — Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center of Military and Political Power

“The Pentagon’s battlefield assessment is an important marker but one that is limited in its analysis. After a prolonged campaign by Israel to eliminate Iranian scientists working on the nuclear program, it will be difficult for the regime to reconstitute it quickly. Iran’s air defenses have also been decimated, likely allowing for further strikes by Israel to continually subvert the construction of nuclear facilities inside Iran. The IAEA has also not yet been allowed to inspect Iranian nuclear sites since the start of the war, so their analysis on Iran’s enrichment capacity is premature. Taken together, Iran’s nuclear and defense posture has been permanently degraded by the strikes, and the regime knows this is an existential threat to its survival.” — Tyler Stapleton, Director of Government Relations at FDD Action

FDD Background and Analysis

“‘We Still Need More Time’: Iranian Foreign Minister Dismisses Trump’s Claim of Imminent Negotiations,” FDD Flash Brief

“‘A Matter of Months’: IAEA Chief Issues Iran Uranium Enrichment Warning,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iranian Grand Ayatollah Issues Fatwa Calling for President Trump’s Murder,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iranian Foreign Minister Concedes Nuclear Facilities ‘Seriously Damaged’ by Israeli, U.S. Strikes,” FDD Flash Brief