Fragile Israel-Iran Ceasefire Continues Despite Deadly Early Morning Iranian Missile Strikes

Latest Developments

• Shaky Ceasefire: Israel and Iran appeared to settle into a fragile ceasefire on June 24 despite deadly Iranian missile barrages in the early hours of the morning. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with President Donald Trump by phone, during which Trump “expressed his confidence in the stability of the ceasefire,” according to the Prime Minister’s Office. Minutes earlier, Trump admonished Israel for allegedly undermining the ceasefire, asserting, “I’m not happy with Israel. You know, when I say, okay, now you have 12 hours, you don’t go out in the first hour and just drop everything you have on them.” On the previous day, Trump unilaterally announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “complete and total” ceasefire, claiming that Iran would end hostilities within six hours and Israel within 12 and that the war would officially end on the 24th hour.
• Morning Ballistic Missile Barrages: Less than one hour before its deadline arrived, Iran unleashed approximately seven ballistic missile barrages at Israel. One missile directly impacted a residential building in the southern Israeli city of Beer Sheva, killing at least four Israeli civilians. Iran’s last barrage of two missiles came at 10:25 a.m. — three and a half hours after its ceasefire deadline had passed. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed “the IDF to respond forcefully to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with intense strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran.” Katz later confirmed that he had spoken with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, telling him Israel “will respect the ceasefire — as long as the other side does.”
• Trump Attempts to Salvage Ceasefire: As he expressed his frustration with Israel and Iran, Trump told reporters at the White House, “These guys got to calm down. Ridiculous!” He then incorrectly stated that Iran had launched “one rocket that didn’t go anywhere,” not mentioning the fatal attack on Beer Sheva. He also warned Israel against delivering a tough response, writing on Truth Social, “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!” Following the conversation between Netanyahu and Trump, Israel launched a limited response, bombing only a radar installation near Tehran.

FDD Expert Response

“Ceasefires can be useful. Israelis are surely tired of the nightly drone and missile attacks from Iran. But the Islamic Republic remains committed to ‘Death to Israel!’ (as well as ‘Death to America!’) and will surely attempt to build back better (if you’ll excuse the expression). ‘Endless wars’ come about when the good guys let the bad guys live and retain the means to fight another day.” — Clifford D. May, Founder and President

“This ceasefire will only work if President Trump ensures he fights the peace-making as well as the Israeli and U.S. military fought the war-making. Trump has to ensure that these conditions are met: no enrichment, no reprocessing, no strategic missiles, and full nuclear dismantlement. And there should be no sanctions relief. Basically, as Trump said before, ‘Unconditional surrender.’” — RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow and Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology

FDD Background and Analysis

“Khomeini’s war: Sunni Islamists taught Shia Iran to hate Israel,” by Hussain Abdul-Hussain

“U.S. Strikes Nuclear Sites, Iran Retaliates With Ballistic Missiles,” by Ryan Brobst and Bradley Bowman

“Location of Iran’s Highly Enriched Uranium Uncertain — but It Likely Cannot Build Nuclear Weapons Now,” by Andrea Stricker