FBI Warns of Heightened Risk of Iranian Retaliation After U.S., Israeli Strikes on Key Nuclear Facilities

Latest Developments

Iran’s Past Record Underlies Concern: The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) warned on June 22 that Iran could attack U.S. interests in retaliation for its strikes against key nuclear facilities on June 21. The assessment cautioned that Iran has “historically targeted U.S. interests in response to political events, and they are likely to increase their efforts in the near term,” urging field offices to stay in contact with the Department of Defense and the National Guard. “Iran would not strike in the United States unless a red line was crossed. That red line was assessed to be direct military engagement, especially targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities,” said Michael Masters, executive director of the Secure Community Network, which serves the U.S. Jewish community.
DHS Warns of Cyber Threats: Separately, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued a security bulletin warning that the conflict between Israel and Iran had raised security concerns in the United States. It additionally cautioned that cyberattacks by pro-Iranian actors were likely. “The likelihood of violent extremists in the homeland independently mobilizing to violence in response to the conflict would likely increase if Iranian leadership issued a religious ruling calling for retaliatory violence against targets in the homeland,” the notice added.
ICE Arrests Iranian Nationals: DHS’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested 11 Iranian nationals in the United States over a period of 48 hours. Among the detainees arrested during the operation, which spanned eight states and nine cities nationwide, were Mehran Makari Sahel, a former member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Ribvar Karmi, who was carrying an Islamic Republic of Iran Army ID card. All 11 of the detainees have been charged or accused of crimes that go beyond civil immigration violations, and ICE noted that the individuals represented a threat to public safety.

FDD Expert Response

“Through diplomats or tweets, President Donald Trump should warn Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that any acts of violence by his agents or proxies will be taken seriously and responded to severely. Such acts will be seen not just as crimes but also as acts of war and violations of the ceasefire. He can then thank Mr. Khamenei for his attention to this matter.” — Clifford D. May, Founder and President

“Terrorism comes naturally to Iran’s clerical regime, whereas fighting wars against a better-trained, better-disciplined enemy doesn’t. The regime is down but not out, which is why the FBI’s warning should be taken very seriously, not just in the United States but around the world.” — Ben Cohen, Senior Analyst and Rapid Response Director