Trump Says He Will Make Decision on U.S. Intervention in Israel-Iran Conflict ‘Within The Next Two Weeks’

Latest Developments

• Decision to be Made: U.S. President Donald Trump “will make [his] decision whether or not” to intervene in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict “within the next two weeks,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on June 19. Leavitt’s statement came amid reports that while Trump has approved U.S. attack plans against Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear facility — which would likely involve the use of GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs, or bunker busters) — he has not made a final decision on whether to involve the U.S. military in the conflict. “If there’s a chance for diplomacy, the President is always going to grab it — but he’s not afraid to use strength, as well,” said Leavitt.
• White House Confirms Iran Close to the Bomb: The White House also confirmed reports that Iran was on the cusp of being able to build a nuclear weapon, intelligence that prompted Israel to launch its preemptive decapitation strikes on June 13. Leavitt told reporters that “Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon. All they need is a decision from the Supreme Leader to do that.” She added that “it would take a couple of weeks to complete the production of that weapon, which would of course pose an existential threat not just to Israel but to the United States and to the entire world.”
• Israel’s Options: Though Israel does not possess the GBU-57 MOP nor the means to deliver it to Fordow, a senior Israeli military official said that the Israeli Air Force could employ several smaller bunker-buster munitions to penetrate the buried facility. An alternative solution would be for Israel to launch a high-risk special operations mission to enter the facility and detonate it from the inside, similar to a 2024 operation in Syria during which IDF special forces infiltrated and destroyed an underground Iranian-built precision missile factory.

FDD Expert Response

“President Trump may be providing time for Israel to continue eliminating key Iranian nuclear, missile, and military assets before considering U.S. military involvement. Yet unless Tehran says now that it is prepared to fully, verifiably, and permanently dismantle its remaining nuclear weapons assets — including the Fordow enrichment site, enriched uranium stocks, and centrifuges — Trump should help Israel finish off what remains and block an Iranian nuclear weapons option for years to come.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

“If Israel chooses to strike the Fordow facility without direct U.S. military support, the operation will undoubtedly be more challenging. Nonetheless, Israel has already demonstrated its ability to conduct complex missions deep in hostile territory, such as last year’s raid on an underground Iranian missile facility in Syria. Furthermore, there is little doubt that since the outbreak of the current war, Israel has closely monitored Fordow and prepared contingency plans for a unilateral operation if necessary. A critical question now is whether Iran is truly ready to counter such a move with any measure of effectiveness.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

FDD Background and Analysis

“Israel Targets Arak Heavy Water Reactor and Weaponization Sites, Destroys Additional Missile Launchers in Iran,” FDD Flash Brief

“CNN Poll Shows Clear Majority of Americans Opposed to Nuclear-Armed Iran,” FDD Flash Brief

“Israeli Leaders Threaten to Eliminate Khamenei After Iranian Missile Strikes Hospital,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iranian Missile Attacks on Israeli Civilians Begin to Taper Off,” FDD Flash Brief