Iranian Missile Attacks on Israeli Civilians Begin to Taper Off

Latest Developments

• No Israeli Deaths in 2 Days: Iran launched two small waves of ballistic missiles along with several drones at Israel on June 18. They caused no significant damage; most of the projectiles were intercepted or fell in open areas. The Israeli death toll since the beginning of Iran’s missile attacks remains at 24, with no new fatalities reported in the past two days. The number of Iranian missiles launched in each salvo has reduced dramatically, at least partially due to Israel having destroyed roughly 200 — around 40 percent — of Iran’s missile launchers.
• Missile Crews on the Run: The IDF reported on June 18 that Iranian forces have reportedly withdrawn from their positions in the west of the country toward more central regions such as Isfahan. On June 17, the Israeli Air Force targeted 12 further missile launch and storage sites in Iran. Israel said on June 17 that it is “one or two weeks” away from eliminating the “existential threat” posed by Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
• Stranded Israelis Slowly Returning: Between 50,000-100,000 Israelis have been stranded abroad amid the ongoing conflict. Two planes of returning Israelis landed at Ben Gurion Airport on June 18 after military risk assessments permitted the flights. More Israeli aircraft are expected to arrive from Athens, Rome, Paris, and other European destinations. Authorities believe that complete repatriation will take several weeks, and maritime options are being considered in the meantime as well.

FDD Expert Response

“While it is encouraging news that Iranian missile attacks appear to be dwindling, the regime has other means of targeting Israeli and Jewish targets. One of the defining features of Iran’s malign behavior has long been its use of proxies to do its bidding. While these assets have not yet been fully activated, their potential use should be a concern. American and Israeli allies in the region are undoubtedly monitoring the situation, aware that they could become targets if Iran chooses to escalate through its network of proxy groups.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal

“Israelis received news that the stringent safety restrictions, imposed since early Friday morning when the attack began, will be eased on Thursday. This may be a sign that the IDF has sufficient control of the battlefield and the confidence to allow Israelis some more normalcy after a tense week.” — Enia Krivine, Senior Director of FDD’s Israel Program and National Security Network

FDD Background and Analysis

“Israel ‘1 to 2’ Weeks Away From Achieving Military Objectives Against Iranian Nuclear Program, IDF Says,” FDD Flash brief

“‘We Need a Face-Saving Solution’: Iran Reportedly Seeks to End Conflict and Resume Talks,” FDD Flash Brief

“‘We Are Not Pausing for a Moment’: Israel Strikes Iranian Ballistic Missile Infrastructure,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iran Appeals to Qatar, Oman to Revive Nuclear Talks,” FDD Flash Brief