Israel ‘1 to 2’ Weeks Away From Achieving Military Objectives Against Iranian Nuclear Program, IDF Says

Latest Developments

• IDF Progress Report: Israel said on June 17 that it is “one to two weeks” away from eliminating the “existential threat” posed by Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The IDF has until now struck both the Isfahan and Natanz nuclear facilities, heavily damaging both. It has also eliminated at least nine nuclear scientists who were working to develop a nuclear weapon for the Islamic Republic. Israel has so far refrained from attacking Iran’s deeply buried Fordow nuclear facility; Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on June 17 that Fordow is in the “bank of targets” and is “an issue that will certainly be addressed.”
• Replacement Commander Killed: The IDF announced on June 17 that it had eliminated Iran’s wartime chief of staff and the commander of the armed forces in an overnight strike in Tehran. Maj. Gen. Ali Shadmani was killed in an airstrike carried out by the Israeli Air Force mere days after his predecessor, Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, was eliminated during the opening strikes of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion. Shadmani was Iran’s most senior military commander, directing the “Khatem al-Anbiya” emergency command center, which approves Iranian attacks against Israel.
• Israel Continues Targeting Iran’s Military Structure: Israel’s initial decapitation strikes against the Islamic Republic eliminated at least 20 high-level Iranian commanders” in addition to Rashid, including Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, and Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh. The strikes were carried out as the top Iranian officials gathered in a fortified command center in Tehran for a meeting anticipated by Israel. The IDF also provided an update on June 17 that it had destroyed some 40 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers, equating to roughly 200, which has contributed to the weakening Iranian missile attacks against Israeli civilians over the past few days.

FDD Expert Response

“President Trump should demand Iran dismantle the Fordow plant, turn over its enriched uranium stockpiles, and verifiably dismantle its nuclear weapons infrastructure. If Tehran refuses, and the Israelis have no way of sabotaging Fordow from the inside, the United States should assist Israel in eliminating the facility.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

“The IDF’s elimination of Shadmani just days after his appointment as successor to his slain predecessor underscores the extent to which Israeli intelligence has deeply penetrated Iran’s security apparatus. His killing sends a clear message to other senior Iranian officials that Israel is actively attempting to track them, creating a powerful psychological effect that can disrupt regime officials’ ability to operate during wartime.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

“Israel’s impressive intelligence-gathering abilities combined with its air dominance and precision strike capabilities have made the job of senior officer in the Iranian military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps extremely hazardous. Shadmani barely had enough time to move into his new office and unpack his boxes after his predecessor was killed days earlier. Senior Iranian leaders are certainly in a panic and likely are focusing more on their survival than performing the tasks required of their office. Quick, successive decapitation strikes have a demoralizing effect at this critical time when the Iranian regime needs cohesion and continuity of command.” — Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow and Editor of FDD’s Long War Journal

FDD Background and Analysis

“‘We Need a Face-Saving Solution’: Iran Reportedly Seeks to End Conflict and Resume Talks,” FDD Flash Brief

“‘We Are Not Pausing for a Moment’: Israel Strikes Iranian Ballistic Missile Infrastructure,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iran Appeals to Qatar, Oman to Revive Nuclear Talks,” FDD Flash Brief

“At Least 20 High-Level Commanders, Nuclear Scientists Killed in Israeli Strikes on Iran,” FDD Flash Brief