Israel May Need U.S. Help to Take Out Key Iranian Nuclear Site Before Disaster Strikes

Iran is relocating its enriched uranium stocks for protection against Israeli strikes and will not tell the UN’s nuclear watchdog where, the nation’s deputy foreign minister said Saturday. The move is a breach of Tehran’s legal obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Tehran’s downgrade of IAEA cooperation raises the possibility that Iran may make a final dash to construct nuclear weapons.

While there are several sites involved in Iran’s nuclear program that may be affected by Iran’s decision, the deeply buried Fordow enrichment facility stands out and could be the source of greatest danger. Fordow is 60 to 90 meters below ground, making it exceptionally difficult for Israel to damage via aerial strikes, although the United States has the means to do so. Iran could send nuclear fuel from Fordow to secret locations where it could be weaponized, or it may attempt a breakout at Fordow — that is, it may produce enough weapons-grade uranium there for multiple warheads.

Several Iranian Nuclear Sites Damaged or Eliminated, Nuclear Scientists Assassinated

During a wide-ranging attack on Iran that began June 12, Israel damaged or eliminated several key Iranian nuclear facilities. Jerusalem said it acted to stop the regime’s efforts to imminently “advanc[e] a secret plan for the technological advancement of all parts of the development of a nuclear weapon.”

Israel destroyed the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz, where Iran makes highly enriched uranium (HEU), that is, uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. It only takes days to further enrich it to 90 percent, which would be atomic weapons-grade material.

Jerusalem likely also damaged the massive, below-ground Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant by attacking the site’s electrical system. This may render its centrifuges temporarily or permanently inoperable. The status of the site’s enriched uranium stocks is unclear.

In addition, Israel targeted four sites in the Esfahan nuclear center, according to the UN watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Israel struck the Esfahan site’s uranium conversion facility and Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant. At the latter, Iran stores some HEU stocks and has a capacity to make uranium metal — a key material in nuclear weapons.

Jerusalem also reportedly targeted the Tehran headquarters of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND). It also confirmed assassinating nine of Iran’s top nuclear scientists during initial strikes.

All these actions create major bottlenecks in Iran’s ability to make enriched uranium and weaponize the material.

Potential for Rapid Nuclear Breakout at Fordow or Elsewhere

However, while Israel has apparently conducted strikes on auxiliary support buildings of the Fordow enrichment plant, it has not yet directly struck the facility. Fordow is the crown jewel of Iran’s enrichment program, houses several advanced centrifuge cascades, and makes HEU.

Combined with Iran’s stated intention to violate the NPT by moving enriched uranium stocks outside IAEA safeguards, Tehran could use Fordow for a rapid breakout. The Institute for Science and International Security estimates Iran has enough HEU to make enough weapons-grade uranium for nine to 10 nuclear weapons at the site within weeks, and could ready its first quantity of the material within two to three days.

Alternatively, Iran may try to move HEU stocks from Fordow to further enrich the HEU to weapons-grade at a secret enrichment plant using a few hundred advanced centrifuges, or to protect a future nuclear weapons breakout option.

U.S. Bunker Busters Can Best Eliminate Fordow

President Donald Trump should demand immediate agreement from Iran to dismantle the Fordow plant, turn over its enriched uranium stockpiles, and verifiably dismantle its nuclear weapons infrastructure. If Tehran refuses, and the Israelis have no way of sabotaging Fordow from the inside, the United States should assist Israel in eliminating the facility.

While Israel possesses lighter bunker-buster bombs that could damage Fordow over successive bombing runs, only Washington possesses the 30,000-pound massive ordnance penetrator (MOP) and B-2 stealth aircraft capable of delivering the MOP, which could decisively eliminate the plant.

If necessary, Trump should authorize the U.S. Air Force to deliver the MOP against Fordow and work with Israel to fully eliminate the site. Together Washington and Jerusalem can seriously damage — and possibly deliver a final blow — to Iran’s remaining nuclear weapons option.

Andrea Stricker is a research fellow and deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from the author and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Andrea on X @StrickerNonpro. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.