‘Tensions Could Become Irreversible’: Iran Threatens Consequences for Europe if Sanctions ‘Snapped Back’ Before October Sunset

Latest Developments

• Araghchi Threatens E3: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned of “irreversible” consequences if the United Kingdom, France, and Germany — known as the E3 — trigger a “snapback” of UN sanctions on Iran before they expire, or “sunset,” on October 18. Araghchi emphasized that triggering the “snapback mechanism” would not only end Europe’s role in the agreement but also escalate “tensions that could become irreversible.”
• Any Nuclear Deal Party Can Trigger Snapback: The snapback mechanism was established through UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2231, which endorsed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The snapback can be triggered by any party to the original deal, which includes the E3. If triggered, UN sanctions on Iran would be immediately reimposed, including a ban on the transfer of conventional arms, a prohibition on international support for Iran’s missile program, a ban on all testing and development of nuclear-capable missiles, a halt to enrichment-related activities, and a travel and asset ban on sanctioned individuals.
• Iran Has Violated Enrichment Restrictions: Iran has repeatedly violated the nuclear enrichment restrictions of the 2015 nuclear deal, enriching uranium to 60 percent purity and dramatically increasing its stocks of 20 percent enriched uranium. The E3’s parallel negotiations with Iran have taken a back seat to indirect negotiations with the Trump administration, from which the E3 are excluded. E3 diplomats are considering triggering snapback in August if “no substantial deal can be found by then.”  

FDD Expert Response

“Parallel to its ongoing nuclear negotiations with the United States, Iran is trying to intimidate U.S. partners in Europe with the clear goal of preventing them from restoring UN sanctions on Iran that would otherwise lapse this October. Now is the perfect time for the United States and Europe to coordinate against Iran’s efforts at intimidation and make President Donald Trump’s successful ‘maximum pressure’ strategy international by snapping back sanctions.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

“Snapback should have happened long ago. It should be clear from Iran’s threats that the regime truly prizes the termination of UN sanctions against Iran, misguidedly baked into the 2015 nuclear deal and its associated UN Resolution 2231. The Trump administration and its European allies must not fall victim to Tehran’s extortion and should restore these important nuclear, missile, and military sanctions immediately.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

FDD Background and Analysis

“‘Difficult But Useful’: United States and Iran Hold Fourth Round of Nuclear Talks in Oman,” FDD Flash Brief

“Any Iranian Enrichment Gives Tehran a Path to Nuclear Weapons,” by Andrea Stricker

“US should snap back UN sanctions to counter Iran’s drone and missile exports,” by Anthony Ruggiero and Andrea Stricker

“IAEA Board Votes to Censure Iran, but Accountability Requires a Snapback of UN Sanctions,” by Andrea Stricker

“FAQ: The ‘Snapback’ of UN Sanctions on Iran,” by Richard Goldberg