‘Within a Matter of Days’: Rubio Warns U.S. Could Walk Away From Russia-Ukraine Negotiations

Latest Developments

• ‘It’s Not Our War’: Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned that the United States will abandon its efforts to secure a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine if progress is not achieved within a “matter of days.” Speaking in Paris on April 18 following meetings with French, Russian, and Ukrainian officials, Rubio told reporters that if it is not “possible to end the war in Ukraine, we need to move on.” He added that the “United States has been helping Ukraine for the past three years and we want it to end, but it’s not our war,” noting that if President Donald Trump did not see a bridging of the gap between the two sides, “he’s probably at a point where he’s going to say, well, we’re done. We’ll do what we can on the margins.”
• MOU on Mineral Deal Signed: Rubio’s comments came one day after the United States and Ukraine signed a memorandum of understanding on a minerals deal. The deal would reportedly involve the creation of a reconstruction fund for Ukraine financed by revenue drawn from Ukraine’s natural resources. According to Trump, the deal will bring the U.S. $500 billion in revenue and win access to Ukraine’s largely untapped rare earth deposits.
• Ukraine Sanctions Chinese Companies: Meanwhile, Ukraine imposed sanctions on three Chinese companies on April 18 for allegedly supplying weapons to Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Beijing Aviation And Aerospace Xianghui Technology Co. Ltd, an aeronautics firm, and Rui Jin Machinery Co. Ltd and Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber Xining Co. Ltd, which manufacture industrial components, would be appropriately sanctioned, meaning that they would be unable to conduct business in Ukraine, and any assets there would be frozen. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian rejected the Ukrainian accusations, claiming, “We have been actively working to promote a ceasefire and push for peace talks.”

FDD Expert Response

“From the outset of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has demonstrated zero interest in ending the war. Secretary Rubio’s Paris ultimatum shows that the White House is awakening to this reality. Only maximum pressure — bolstering U.S. military aid to Ukraine and intensifying sanctions on Russia — will force Putin to negotiate on America’s terms.” — Peter Doran, Adjunct Senior Fellow

“Although the Trump administration is right to act with a sense of urgency, threatening to wash our hands of the peace talks could perversely incentivize Russian intransigence since Moscow will likely calculate that the United States walking away would lead to an end to American aid for Ukraine. Instead, Washington should focus on putting pressure on Russia, including by tightening sanctions on Russian oil revenue. Meanwhile, Washington should strive to help Ukrainian forces exhaust Russian offensive potential to show Putin he cannot gain through further fighting.” — John Hardie, Deputy Director of FDD’s Russia Program

FDD Background and Analysis

“‘Before Negotiations…Come to See’: Zelensky Urges Trump to Visit Ukraine,” FDD Flash Brief

“Pressure Putin,” by Clifford D. May

“Europe Must Take the Lead,” by Ivana Stradner and Marina Chernin