‘Deterrent Measures’: Iran Threatens to Halt Cooperation With Nuclear Watchdog if U.S. Military Threats Persist

Latest Developments

• Iran Threatens Expulsion of UN Personnel: An Iranian official warned on April 10 that Tehran might suspend its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, if U.S. threats of military action against its nuclear program persist. “Continued external threats and putting Iran under the conditions of a military attack could lead to deterrent measures like the expulsion of IAEA inspectors and ceasing cooperation with it,” said Ali Shamkhani, a political adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• High-Level Talks Scheduled: The United States and Iran are scheduled to hold high-level talks in Oman on April 12, aiming to initiate negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program. Although President Donald Trump described the forthcoming discussions as “direct talks,” Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, while confirming that the talks would take place, referred to them as “indirect high-level talks.”
• Trump’s Threats: Trump sent a letter to Khamenei on March 5 giving Tehran 60 days to reach a nuclear deal with the United States. Since then, Trump has stated that while “doing a deal would be preferable,” military action remains an option if negotiations fail. “If they don’t make a deal, there will be a bombing … the likes of which they have never seen before,” the president warned on March 30. Trump reiterated his threats on April 9, saying that the United States will “absolutely” use military force against the Islamic Republic in the event that the talks fail, adding that Israel would “be very much involved in that.”

FDD Expert Response

“Iran is playing a dangerous game. Eliminating IAEA monitoring and inspections or moving enriched uranium to secret sites would remove any confidence the world has that Tehran is not breaking out to nuclear weapons. Such actions will almost certainly prompt the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign the regime hopes to avoid.” — Andrea Stricker, FDD Research Fellow and Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program

“Tehran initially refused to join talks under maximum pressure, demanding sanctions relief as a condition. It later reversed course following a U.S. military buildup in the region, as it faced a devalued currency and unrest from farmers and parts of its support base. With limited leverage, Iran is acutely aware of the severe risks a military strike on its nuclear and missile sites would entail.” — Janatan Sayeh, Research Analyst

FDD Background and Analysis

“FAQ: U.S. To Hold Nuclear Talks With Iran,” by Andrea Stricker

“‘This is Where the Negotiations Can End’: Iran Signals Opposition to Dismantling Nuclear and Missile Programs,” FDD Flash Brief

“‘The Ball Is in America’s Court’: Iran Insists Against Trump That Forthcoming Nuclear Talks Will Be ‘Indirect’,” FDD Flash Brief